The urgency stems from timing that industry analysts describe as catastrophic. Around one-third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has threatened to shut to shipping amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign. Product shipped through the Middle East during mid-March is set to arrive in North America for April spring planting application and is now at risk of being delayed, according to Farm Progress.

"Literally, this could not happen at a worse time of the year," Josh Linville, a StoneX analyst, told Successful Farming.

The supply disruption is already driving prices to multi-year highs. The North American fertilizer price index reached $810 per short ton as of March 9, exceeding the August 2025 peak of $776.85 per short ton. At the New Orleans import hub, fertilizer prices jumped from $516 per metric ton on Friday to as high as $683 by Thursday.

Supply Chain Impact

The International Energy Agency reported Thursday that Middle East Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day due to the conflict, equal to almost 10% of world demand. Qatar has also stopped operations at its LNG facilities, affecting plants that supply about 20% of global LNG, driving up natural gas prices that are critical for nitrogen fertilizer production.

According to CoBank analysis, three of the world's 10 largest urea exporters and three of the 10 largest ammonia exporters depend on the Strait of Hormuz. Poland's state-run Grupa Azoty, one of the largest fertilizer producers in the European Union, has temporarily stopped taking orders citing higher gas prices inflating production costs.

"Many farmers were coming into this spring behind the eight ball on pulling the trigger on fertilizer decisions with poor economics and overall high input costs. Waiting for fertilizer price relief proved to be a dangerous gamble," Jacqui Fatka, CoBank lead economist for farm supplies and biofuels, said in a March 9 report.

Market Response

Beyond the major producers, smaller fertilizer companies also posted significant gains Thursday. CVR Partners LP (NYSE: UAN) jumped 6.63% to $137.26, while Intrepid Potash Inc (NYSE: IPI) rallied 6.39% to $46.97.

The USDA has warned against price gouging. "The president will be very clear, and Secretary [Brooke] Rollins as well, that any company or any part of the fertilizer supply chain who tries to use this opportunity to price-gouge American farmers and ranchers will not be tolerated," Luke Lindberg, USDA undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs, said March 9.

What to Watch

Investors should monitor:

• Alternative shipping routes: Whether fertilizer shipments can be rerouted around the Strait of Hormuz

• Strategic stockpile releases: IEA coordination on releasing reserves to ease supply constraints

• Spring planting timeline: Any delays in April planting season could further tighten supply-demand dynamics

• Q1 earnings guidance: Expected in late April/early May, when companies will quantify supply chain impacts

• Natural gas prices: Continued upward pressure on production costs for nitrogen fertilizers

The conflict has created what the IEA calls the largest oil supply disruption in global market history, with ripple effects extending across agriculture commodity markets as palm oil surged as much as 10%, soybean oil jumped, and wheat neared a two-year peak.