Investing.com -- Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (F: RCL), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NYSE: NCLH), and Viking Holdings Ltd (NYSE: VIK) all declined in pre-open trading Thursday as crude oil prices surged near $100 per barrel following fresh Iranian attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about escalating fuel costs across an industry where energy typically accounts for 10%-15% of revenue.

Carnival fell the most among major cruise operators, dropping 3.2% to $25.15, while Royal Caribbean slipped 2.6%%, Norwegian declined 2.6%, and Viking fell 2.9%. The divergence in losses highlights Carnival's particular vulnerability: the company does not hedge its fuel needs, meaning every spike in oil prices hits earnings directly with no buffer, according to TIKR analysis. By contrast, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian maintain fuel hedging programs that provide partial protection against short-term price shocks.

Brent crude futures jumped $7.31, or 8%, to $99.29 per barrel, while WTI crude climbed $6.80, or 8%, to $93.93 as of Thursday's close. The spike came after Iran attacked two tankers in Iraqi waters overnight on March 11-12, bringing the total number of ships struck in the region to at least 16 since the U.S.-Israeli military operation in Iran began on February 28.

The travel sector tumbled globally on Thursday as analysts highlighted rising fuel costs, cancellations, and rerouting expenses as pressure points. Major Gulf hubs including Dubai airport, the world's busiest international airport handling over 1,000 flights daily, remained closed for a third day as of Thursday, compounding concerns about demand disruption across the broader travel industry.

Strait of Hormuz blockade threatens 21 million barrels daily

Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned that any ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for about a fifth of the world's oil supply, or approximately 21 million barrels per day—will be targeted. Only five oil tankers transited the strait on March 1, compared with around 60 tankers per day recently, according to S&P Global.

"If the reduction in tanker traffic continues for a week or so it will be historic," said Jim Burkhard, S&P Global head of crude oil research.

"Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilized," said Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters. "We won't allow even one litre of oil to reach the U.S., Zionists (Israel) and their partners. Any vessel or tanker bound to them will be a legitimate target."

The International Energy Agency agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles, with the U.S. contributing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. However, Tina Teng, market strategist at Moomoo ANZ, cautioned that "the IEA's release of oil reserves may be only a temporary solution, as disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and a major production halt in some Middle Eastern countries could cause a long-term supply crunch."

Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent crude price forecast to $71 per barrel from $66, citing longer disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the conflict began, Brent crude prices have gained more than 36% and WTI has risen about 39%, with both benchmarks briefly topping $119 on Monday March 9.

Margin impact: unhedged exposure means direct earnings hit

For Carnival, which does not hedge fuel costs, a sustained $20 increase in crude prices could reduce annual operating income by approximately $400-600 million, or roughly $0.30-0.45 per share, based on the company's fuel consumption representing 10-15% of revenue. With Carnival generating approximately $20 billion in annual revenue, fuel costs would rise by $200-300 million for every $10 sustained increase in oil prices, assuming no pass-through to consumers.

Royal Caribbean and Norwegian's partial hedging strategies—typically covering 30-50% of near-term fuel needs—would cushion but not eliminate the margin pressure. Viking's smaller fleet size and higher-end positioning may allow more pricing flexibility to offset fuel cost increases.

What to watch

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  Carnival's Q4 2025 earnings are expected around March 19, where management may provide updated guidance on fuel cost impact and address Middle East conflict implications for 2026 outlook

  
  


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  Crude oil price trajectory and whether Brent sustains levels above $100, which would intensify margin pressure across all four cruise operators

  
  


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  Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic data as a gauge for supply disruption duration—if the current five-tanker-per-day flow rate continues for another week, S&P Global analysts warn it would represent the largest sustained oil supply disruption in history

  
  


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  Booking trends and cancellation rates as consumers weigh higher travel costs, geopolitical risks, and ongoing Gulf airport closures that complicate Middle East and Mediterranean itineraries

  
  


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  Hedging strategy updates from Royal Caribbean and Norwegian earnings calls to assess how much protection remains for Q2-Q3 2026

  
  


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  Competitive pricing dynamics to determine whether cruise lines can pass fuel surcharges to consumers without sacrificing load factors