Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts as it assumes a longer and deeper disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, warning that risks remain “skewed to the upside” if outages persist.

Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struynen told investors that the bank now models 21 days of low Strait of Hormuz flows at just 10 percent of normal levels, compared with 10 days previously, followed by a 30-day gradual recovery.

The bank said its tracking shows “an estimated hit to Persian Gulf exports of 16.2mb/d,” describing it as the “largest oil supply shock on record.”

Under its updated framework, Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $71 in the fourth quarter of 2026, up from $66 prior, while WTI is seen at $67.

The bank also incorporates “a larger policy response and a persistent positioning boost” tied to geopolitical risks and investor rotation into hard assets.

In the near term, Struynen said uncertainty over disruption length means “oil prices are likely to trend higher” until markets gain confidence that outages will not become prolonged.

He added that the market will likely require “a large risk premium to generate precautionary demand destruction.”

The bank estimates that coordinated global policy action, including 254 million barrels of SPR releases and Russian draws, could cut the hit to inventories by nearly 50 percent.

Still, the risks remain two-sided. A faster end to U.S. military action unwinds the premium, but a long disruption could be far more severe.

In a 60-day scenario, Goldman Sachs models Brent at $93 and WTI at $89. So far on Thursday, Brent is trading above $96, while CWTI is at around $91.50.