Investing.com -- U.S. consumers appear well-positioned to weather the latest energy-price spike linked to the Iran conflict, according to Wolfe Research, which argues that fiscal support and stronger tax refunds should cushion the impact.

Wolfe Research analyst Chris Senyek noted that recent energy volatility “has sent fears across markets of a potential growth slowdown” after average gasoline prices jumped.

The firm calculates that if gas prices were to rise by roughly $0.50 for the full year, it would force “a ~$70B reallocation of consumer spending from goods & services to energy,” creating “a ~0.2% headwind to nominal GDP.”

Even so, the analysts stressed that fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will “act as a buffer between consumers and higher gas prices over the near-term, lessening the financial burden.”

Despite the market jitters, Wolfe Research noted that “stocks will continue trading based on headlines over the very near term,” but said both the firm and “almost all investors with whom we speak, believe this conflict will significantly de-escalate over the coming weeks — ultimately leading to lower gasoline prices.”

Crucially, tax refunds are “running up ~11% YTD,” and Wolfe Research expects consumer spending to “remain strong driven by refunds and the wealth/baby boomer effect.”

The firm argues that these supports are likely to outlast the temporary oil-price shock, limiting the drag on demand even if energy costs stay elevated in the short term.