Investing.com -- Near-$100 crude would be “not particularly bad news” for the United States economy, according to Capital Economics, which argues that the country’s status as a modest net energy exporter would cushion much of the blow.

Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note this week that while higher prices would force consumers to cut back on non-energy spending, “that would be offset over time by the positive effects of stronger income in the oil patch.”

He added that the near-term hit to real GDP growth would be “modestly negative.”

Brown assessed three possible oil-price paths, including a short-lived conflict pushing WTI back to $60, a more prolonged conflict keeping prices “more than $100 for the next few months,” and an extreme scenario in which lasting damage to energy infrastructure drives crude “toward $150 per barrel for at least six months.”

Based on recent price action, including a sharp move down to $80, Capital Economics said the first scenario feels like the one we are heading for. But the analysis focuses on the second, in which WTI averages about $100 for the rest of the year.

Under that path, Brown expects headline CPI to climb from 2.6% in January to 3.3% by December, with core inflation pushed slightly higher by energy-sensitive categories such as airline fares. Consumer spending would slow but only modestly, he said.

Despite higher inflation, Capital Economics argues the Federal Reserve would likely pause rate cuts rather than revert to hikes, unless oil surged toward $150, in which case some hawkish officials could push for “one or two ‘insurance hikes’.”