Investing.com -- TD Cowen has downgraded Novo Nordisk to Hold, warning that the drugmaker faces “enormous challenges” ahead of semaglutide’s loss of exclusivity (LOE).

Analyst Michael Nedelcovych writes that while Novo Nordisk “can be fairly credited with unlocking the obesity market’s potential,” it is “no longer clear the pipeline can answer the call.”

TD Cowen says its downgrade follows a series of setbacks across key programs. “CagriSema trials have failed or underwhelmed, and Ozempic prescriptions keep lagging,” the firm notes, adding that insights from its recent Health Care Conference “offered additional reasons for caution.”

Although the Wegovy Pill launch “continues to impress,” the bank writes that long-term questions remain, particularly around whether demand will persist and how aggressively rival oral GLP-1s, including Lilly’s orforglipron, may compete.

TD Cowen has raised its Wegovy Pill sales forecast to DKK 20 billion for 2026, rising to DKK 55 billion by 2030, but warns that semaglutide’s expiration will overshadow those gains.

“Success of Wegovy Pill simply creates a larger hole to be filled,” the note says, with semaglutide expected to go generic in major markets in 2031–32.

The firm argues that Novo Nordisk’s broader pipeline “is relatively strong but no longer sufficient” to provide visibility beyond semaglutide.

TD Cowen cut its price target on NVO to $42, saying it is “moving to the sidelines pending greater clarity on the long-term trajectory.”