Investing.com -- A dramatic surge in crude has not delivered the usual boost to U.S. oilfield services stocks, and the risk now is that prices could fall just as sharply, according to Piper Sandler analyst Derek Podhaizer in a note Monday.

Podhaizer said investors “did not chase the oil price spike,” even as WTI jumped nearly 40 percent over the past week.

Instead, U.S. land services stocks were “flat to up low-single-digit,” while even Halliburton lagged, falling 5 percent, “essentially inline with the -6% OIH.”

He pointed to two main reasons for the muted reaction.

Firstly, the analyst highlighted positioning, noting that before the conflict, OIH was already up 40 percent year-to-date, with pressure pumpers, land drillers and other U.S. land names up strongly.

Second, skepticism that exploration and production companies will quickly ramp activity, given the “new market dynamic of E&P capital discipline” and the fact that private operators, “who are the most price sensitive,” account for 45 percent of the current rig count.

The concern, Podhaizer warned, is that “if the conflict were to resolve sooner rather than later, oil prices would correct down just as hard as they spiked, resulting in a significant air pocket for the stocks.”

Meanwhile, Middle East-exposed names saw the sharper hit, as expected. NESR dropped 17 percent, with WFRD, SLB, WHD and HP also declining as the conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz raised risks and production was curtailed in Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE and Qatar.

Despite the tepid U.S. land response, Piper Sandler still expects those stocks to outperform as long as WTI remains elevated, while Middle East-exposed companies continue to lag.