Investing.com -- A proposed U.S. rule requiring licenses for the global export of advanced artificial intelligence chips could introduce new friction into the rapidly expanding AI hardware market, analysts at Bernstein said.

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon noted that a report that Washington is drafting regulations requiring licenses for AI chip exports worldwide briefly weighed on semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Broadcom.

The proposed framework is not yet finalized and could still change or be abandoned, but it would give the U.S. government broad oversight of AI chip shipments.

Bernstein believes the rules “are not meant to be an export ban,” but instead would allow Washington to effectively “gate-keep AI exports.”

Under the draft approach, chip purchases may require approval depending on order size.

Bernstein noted that shipments of up to 1,000 of Nvidia’s latest chips would undergo a “fairly simple review” process, while larger deployments would require pre-clearance and extremely large projects could involve host-government oversight.

Despite the potential policy shift, Bernstein suggested the direct commercial impact on Nvidia may be limited because much of its revenue is tied to U.S.-based customers.

In fiscal 2026, the firm said about 70% of Nvidia’s $216 billion in sales were to companies headquartered in the U.S., with Taiwan-domiciled customers accounting for roughly 20%.

Still, the firm warned that tighter rules could slow certain international deployments. Bernstein stated that “more stringent export requirements might slow sovereign adoption,” which Nvidia has estimated at more than $30 billion.

Even so, the bank expects global demand for AI computing infrastructure to remain extremely strong.