Alcoa (NYSE: AA) reported Q4 EPS of $1.26, $0.33 better than the analyst estimate of $0.93. Revenue for the quarter came in at $3.4 billion versus the consensus estimate of $3.28 billion.

2026 Outlook

The Company does not provide reconciliations of the forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Net Income, including transformation, intersegment eliminations and other corporate Adjusted EBITDA; operational tax expense; and other expense; each excluding special items, to the most directly comparable forward-looking GAAP financial measures because it is impractical to forecast certain special items, such as restructuring charges and mark-to-market contracts, without unreasonable efforts due to the variability and complexity associated with predicting the occurrence and financial impact of such special items. For the same reasons, the Company is unable to address the probable significance of the unavailable information, which could be material to future results.

Alcoa expects 2026 total Alumina segment production to range between 9.7 and 9.9 million metric tons, an increase from 2025 due to productivity improvements. In 2026, alumina shipments are expected to be between 11.8 and 12.0 million metric tons. The difference between production and shipments, which decreased from 2025, reflects trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to fulfill customer contracts.

Alcoa expects 2026 total Aluminum segment production to range between 2.4 and 2.6 million metric tons, an increase from 2025 due to smelter restarts. In 2026, aluminum shipments are expected to range between 2.6 and 2.8 million metric tons.

Within the first quarter 2026 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects sequential unfavorable impacts of $30 million due to the typical first quarter impacts from the beginning of maintenance cycles and lower alumina shipments, as well as lower price and volume from bauxite offtake and supply agreements.

For the first quarter 2026 Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA, Alcoa expects sequential unfavorable impacts of $70 million due to the absence of Spain and Norway carbon dioxide compensation recognized in the fourth quarter 2025 and higher production costs associated with the restart of the San Ciprián smelter.

Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, Alcoa expects first quarter 2026 operational tax expense to approximate $65 million to $75 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.

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