Alcoa (NYSE: AA) reported Q2 EPS of $0.39, $0.06 better than the analyst estimate of $0.33. Revenue for the quarter came in at $3.02 billion versus the consensus estimate of $2.91 billion.

Alcoa expects 2025 total Alumina segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from its prior projection, ranging between 9.5 to 9.7 million metric tons, and between 13.1 and 13.3 million metric tons, respectively. The difference between production and shipments reflects trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to fulfill customer contracts due to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery.

Alcoa expects 2025 total Aluminum segment production to remain unchanged from its prior projection, ranging between 2.3 and 2.5 million metric tons. The Company has decreased its 2025 projection for aluminum shipments to range between 2.5 and 2.6 million metric tons, a reduction of between 0.1 and 0.2 million metric tons from the prior projection primarily due to the reduced production at the San Ciprián smelter as a result of the delayed restart.

Within the third quarter 2025 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects sequential favorable impacts of approximately $20 million due to lower maintenance costs and efficiencies at higher production rates.

For the third quarter 2025, the Aluminum segment expects sequential unfavorable impacts of approximately $90 million due to U.S. Section 232 tariffs on imports of aluminum from Canada. Alumina costs in the Aluminum segment are expected to be favorable by approximately $100 million sequentially.

The Company expects Other expenses for the third quarter 2025 to remain consistent with the second quarter 2025.

Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, Alcoa expects third quarter 2025 operational tax expense to approximate $50 million to $60 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.

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