Wayfair (W) PT Lowered to $48 at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers lowered the price target on Wayfair (NYSE: W) to $48.00 (from $50.00) while maintaining a Overweight rating.
The analyst comments "PM’s take: Stock not reflecting the story; better-than-expected with outlook looking conservative; strong cadence. Overall, W’s results came in better than expected on both the top and bottom line, and we believe the company is being conservative around both the sales and margin outlook given macro uncertainty. Indeed, given QTD commentary on February 20 of “slightly negative QTD” and today’s follow-up that indicated that trends turned mid-Feb with momentum continuing in March and QTD (along with the estimated ~300-pt headwind to Feb for the Leap Day; 1 pt to 1Q), the math implies strong momentum in March (MSD?) and through April. Even if March benefitted from a larger sale event (Figure 4), the momentum would still be notable, in our view. We also believe the company largely endorsed current 2Q consensus estimates (which already had flat sales YOY and a 4.8% adjusted EBITDA rate) for the sake of uncertainty (which suggests they are doing much better, else why not push estimates even lower?). Moreover, given the lagged benefit of the estimated 80-bp headwind to gross margin from vendors building inventory into its CastleGate network, our view that Germany exit benefits will continue to grow ($20MMe per quarter at full run rate in 2H25 with some more from the tech replatforming; see bullet below), and a bottom-up view of much smaller losses in International (-$24MMe in 1Q ex the Canadian duties settlement), the margin outlook for 2Q and the current forward consensus appear beatable. How significant the demand pull-forward was and broader recessionary risks represent great unknowns, with the burden of proof large on a stock/company/sector like that of Wayfair. That said, we do believe the stock is vastly undervalued at today’s price and are reiterating our Overweight rating."
