Alcoa (NYSE: AA) reported Q1 EPS of $2.15, $0.57 better than the analyst estimate of $1.58. Revenue for the quarter came in at $3.37 billion versus the consensus estimate of $3.5 billion.

2025 Outlook

The following outlook does not include reconciliations of the forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Net Income, including transformation, intersegment eliminations and other corporate Adjusted EBITDA; operational tax expense; and other expense; each excluding special items, to the most directly comparable forward-looking GAAP financial measures because it is impractical to forecast certain special items, such as restructuring charges and mark-to-market contracts, without unreasonable efforts due to the variability and complexity associated with predicting the occurrence and financial impact of such special items. For the same reasons, the Company is unable to address the probable significance of the unavailable information, which could be material to future results.

Alcoa expects 2025 total Alumina segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from its prior projection, ranging between 9.5 to 9.7 million metric tons, and between 13.1 and 13.3 million metric tons, respectively. The difference between production and shipments reflects trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to fulfill customer contracts due to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery.

Alcoa expects 2025 total Aluminum segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from its prior projection, ranging between 2.3 and 2.5 million metric tons, and between 2.6 and 2.8 million metric tons, respectively.

Within the second quarter 2025 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects to maintain the strong level of performance delivered in the first quarter 2025.

For the second quarter 2025, the Aluminum Segment expects sequential unfavorable impacts of $90 million due to U.S. Section 232 tariffs on imports of aluminum from Canada, and $15 million of restart costs for the San Ciprián smelter. Alumina costs in the Aluminum segment are expected to be favorable by $165 million sequentially.

The Company expects Other expenses for the second quarter 2025 to increase approximately $10 million sequentially due to equity investment losses.

Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, Alcoa expects second quarter 2025 operational tax benefit to approximate $50 million to $60 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.

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