Franco-Nevada (NYSE: FNV) reported Q4 EPS of $0.95, $0.03 better than the analyst estimate of $0.92. Revenue for the quarter came in at $321 million versus the consensus estimate of $309.18 million.

OUTLOOK

2025 Guidance

We expect our 2025 revenue to be more than 25% higher than in 2024. This is based on our budgeted gold price of $2,800/oz and the mid-point of our Total GEOs guidance range provided below. We anticipate a 14% increase in Precious Metal GEOs and a 7% increase in our Total GEOs for 2025 compared to 2024, assuming no contributions from Cobre Panama.

Long-Term Outlook

For 2028, we expect Precious Metal GEOs to increase to between 400,000 and 440,000 GEOs and Total GEOs to increase to between 505,000 and 565,000 GEOs, a 18% and 15% increase, respectively, compared to 2024. For 2029, we expect Precious Metal GEOs to increase to between 375,000 and 415,000 GEOs and Total GEOs to increase to between 490,000 and 550,000 GEOs, a 11% and 12% increase, respectively, compared to 2024. We have not assumed any contribution from Cobre Panama in this outlook, although there is potential for materially higher GEOs should it restart production, depending on the conditions of any such restart. Based on the average of the next five years of the Cobre Panama mine plan, the asset has the potential to contribute as much as 130,000 to 150,000 GEOs annually.

The five-year outlook reflects the expected commencement of production at Valentine Gold, Stibnite, Eskay Creek, Castle Mountain Phase 2, the Coroccohuayco project at Antapaccay, the expected underground expansion at Candelaria, and the long-term expansion of Magino. We also anticipate an increase in silver production from Antamina due to higher silver grades. The outlook includes a step-down starting in 2027 in our stream from 68% to 40% of gold and silver produced at Candelaria, and a reduction starting in 2028 in our stream deliveries at Antapaccay, where our stream will be based on 30% of gold and silver produced rather than indexed to copper production. Production at Guadalupe-Palmarejo is currently expected to decrease in 2029 based on the latest life of mine plan.

With respect to our Diversified assets, we anticipate production growth from the continued development of our U.S. Energy assets. We also expect an increase in attributable sales from Vale's Northern and Southeastern systems, and have assumed commencement of production at Copper World and Taca Taca in 2029. While we expect higher revenues from our Diversified assets in the long-term outlook compared to 2024, we have used significantly higher gold prices and slightly lower oil, gas and iron ore prices in calculating the GEO contribution as compared to the prices used in 2024. This has the effect of reducing the GEOs represented by the larger revenues.

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