Wolfe Research analyst Shweta Khajuria reiterated an Outperform rating and $40.00 price target on Match Group (NASDAQ: MTCH)

The analyst comments: "Post the company's investor day in December, successful execution will be key going forward, as CEO Kim is up for re-election and three activist investors watch progress on fundamental trends in the near-to-mid-term. We believe estimates for Q4 and 2025 are largely de-risked with the recently revised guide.

Over the past year, since activist investors started getting involved, forward growth rate assumptions have been revised down; b) interest rates are higher and expected to remain elevated; c) part of our thesis for Outperform rating is that if fundamentals improve, shares get re-rated, and if they do not improve, there is a legitimate chance of the company being brought private.
In our analysis, we assume purchase price at 11x '25 EBITDA (vs. current 9.5x) with 4x leverage. We also assume 4% 5-year top-line CAGR, 5.5% interest rate on a revised capital structure, with expanding EBITDA margins through 2030 to reach low-40% range and 75% FCF conversion. We derive a share price range of $40 - $45 with 10x terminal multiple (at 2030), 2.2x MOIC, and IRR of 14%. Our analysis does not assume any further divestitures."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Match Group click here. For more ratings news on Match Group click here.

Shares of Match Group closed at $35.40 yesterday.