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Checkpoint Software (CHKP) PT Raised to $207 at JPMorgan

January 28, 2025 5:21 AM

JPMorgan analyst Brian Essex raised the price target on Checkpoint Software (NASDAQ: CHKP) to $207.00 (from $202.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

The analyst comments "Check Point is scheduled to report earnings on Thursday, January 30th at 8:30am ET. Focus on growth vs. margins in FY25. We expect healthy 4Q results for CHKP relative to consensus estimates, with billings expected to reaccelerate following disappointing billings growth last quarter. Expectations are supported by deals that slipped into 4Q from 3Q, indications of better industry-wide budget flush this year versus last, a Quantum driven product cycle, and double digit software subscription growth. However, valuation remains elevated compared to historical levels and we think we’ll need to see results and commentary that reflect performance well above FY25 consensus estimates in order to realize meaningful upside to current levels. Considering current product related tailwinds, along with an industry-wide firewall refresh cycle expected this year and improving channel relationships, current FY25 Street estimates could prove conservative. But we remain cautious with our outlook as CHKP has not historically benefitted from product cycles or refresh cycles to the extent its primary public peers have. Although Bloomberg consensus numbers reflect relatively flat operating margins in FY25, sales and marketing continues to grow faster than revenue and billings, prompting concern over the level of margin compression we could see ahead, but we could see management offer indications of better than feared margin support. In addition to 4Q results and outlook, we look forward to commentary from the company’s new CEO (his official start date was December 1) with potential updates with regard to his impact on go-to-market strategy and customer engagement in particular. We remain Neutral rated as we increase our price target to $207 to reflect better peer FCF multiples."

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