Alcoa (NYSE: AA) reported Q4 EPS of $1.04, $0.11 better than the analyst estimate of $0.93. Revenue for the quarter came in at $3.49 billion versus the consensus estimate of $3.29 billion.

2025 Outlook

The following outlook does not include reconciliations of the forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Net Income, including transformation, intersegment eliminations and other corporate Adjusted EBITDA; operational tax expense; and other expense; each excluding special items, to the most directly comparable forward-looking GAAP financial measures because it is impractical to forecast certain special items, such as restructuring charges and mark-to-market contracts, without unreasonable efforts due to the variability and complexity associated with predicting the occurrence and financial impact of such special items. For the same reasons, the Company is unable to address the probable significance of the unavailable information, which could be material to future results.

Alcoa expects 2025 total Alumina segment production to range between 9.5 to 9.7 million metric tons, a decrease from 2024 due to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery. In 2025, alumina shipments are expected to be between 13.1 and 13.3 million metric tons, consistent with 2024. The difference between production and shipments reflects trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to fulfill customer contracts due to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery.

Alcoa expects 2025 total Aluminum segment production to range between 2.3 and 2.5 million metric tons, an increase from 2024 due to smelter restarts. In 2025, aluminum shipments are expected to range between 2.6 and 2.8 million metric tons.

Within the first quarter 2025 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects sequential favorable impacts of $30 million due to the absence of a charge to write down certain inventories to their net realizable value, partially offset by the typical first quarter impacts from the beginning of maintenance cycles and lower shipments.

For the first quarter 2025, the Aluminum Segment expects sequential unfavorable impacts of $60 million due to the non-recurrence of the fourth quarter 2024 benefit from the IRA 45X credit, lower seasonal pricing at Brazil hydro-electric facilities, and the absence of Ma’aden offtake volumes due to the announced transaction.

Within Other expenses, contributions to ELYSISTM in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to increase by $25 million which triggers loss recognition.

Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, Alcoa expects first quarter 2025 operational tax expense to approximate $120 million to $130 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.

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