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Scorpio Tankers (STNG) PT Lowered to $80 at Deutsche Bank

October 29, 2024 2:32 PM

Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Robertson lowered the price target on Scorpio Tankers (NYSE: STNG) to $80.00 (from $84.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst comments "STNG posted 3Q24 adjusted diluted EPS of $1.75, beating our estimate of $1.57 and the average Street forecast of $1.63. However, although spot rate expectations had eased heading into the seasonally stronger 4Q (see our updated projections here), the 4Q-to-date spot rate bookings for STNG’s fleet are still trending softer than feared, leading to downside risk to near-term estimates. Indeed, our 4Q24 EPS forecast now stands at $1.62 (from $2.19). The revision to our 2025 projection is far more limited, to $9.26 (from $9.47) as we still expect spot rates to lift off seasonal lows. We recognize that our 2025 forecast would represent the lowest annual total since 2021, which helps feed the narrative that the robust tanker market upturn may be drawing to a close. But the absolute earnings/cash flow level is still at multiples of historical mid-cycle levels, enabling STNG to continue to rapidly delever its balance sheet (total debt down by $1.15 billion over the last 18 months) while simultaneously aggressively repurchasing shares (roughly $760 million over the last 2 years), creating a much higher earnings bar through cycles. Even with our “lower” earnings estimates, we forecast STNG could be net debt free by 2H25, providing even more shareholder return flexibility going forward. In the meantime, as investors fade the prolonged cycle, the stock now trades at a greater than 40% discount to NAV, which should further accelerate the buyback pace. The 3Q print and 4Q update effectively confirmed how the spot market has evolved over the last few months, but with rates about to inflect higher as per typical seasonal trends and the capital return machine set to restart, with believe the risk/reward of the shares is now solidly in favor of adding positions. We reiterate our Outperform rating with a 12-month price target of $80 (a 21% discount to NAV)."

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