MercadoLibre (MELI) PT Raised to $2,025 at BTIG
BTIG analyst Marvin Fong raised the price target on MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI) to $2,025.00 (from $1,885.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.
The analyst comments "MELI delivered the goods, literally and figuratively, in 2Q24. Riding the fastest growth in items sold (+29% y/y) in over 3 years, MELI generated GMV of $12.7B, easily topping the $11.8B consensus. GMV strength was broad-based with local FX growth of 36% in Brazil vs. our 24%, 30% in Mexico vs. our 23%, and 252% in Argentina vs. our 215%. The robust performance in Brazil is especially impressive given MELI already controls an estimated ~40% of the market. Unique buyers rose by 3.1MM q/q, the largest non-Holiday quarter growth since the pandemic and items per buyer of 7.4 also rose to a new non-Holiday high, per our records. Fintech results were no slouch either. TPV of $46.3B bested the Street's $44.7B and Acquiring TPV accelerated in all three key geographies while growing 75% overall in local FX. Fintech take-rate expanded 3 bps q/q and, more importantly, MELI captured 110 bps of gross margin expansion from credit & fintech funding. All of these positives led to revenue of $5.1B, soundly above the Street's $4.6B and our $4.7B. Adjusted EBITDA was $880MM vs. the Street's $812MM and our $769MM. Impressively, Argentina's direct contribution margin improved nearly 800 bps q/q and is already nearly back to pre-devaluation levels. One spoiler is FX, which will weigh on upcoming quarters as major LatAm currencies have recently fallen vs. the dollar. As such, we are modeling GMV to decline sequentially to $12.4B, but that is still above the Street's $11.8B. At 2Q FX rates, our 3Q GMV estimate would be over $13B. While we take up our growth estimates, higher loss provisions and FX lead us to maintain our FY25 EBITDA estimate of $4.0B. Despite our EBITDA estimate staying intact, we raise our PT to $2,025 from $1,885 as we believe the stronger organic growth outlook warrants a higher target multiple. Maintain BUY."
