Alcoa (NYSE: AA) reported Q2 EPS of $0.16, $0.10 better than the analyst estimate of $0.06. Revenue for the quarter came in at $2.91 billion versus the consensus estimate of $2.85 billion.

2024 Outlook:

The following outlook does not include reconciliations of the forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Net Income, including transformation, intersegment eliminations and other corporate Adjusted EBITDA; operational tax expense; and other expense; each excluding special items, to the most directly comparable forward-looking GAAP financial measures because it is impractical to forecast certain special items, such as restructuring charges and mark-to-market contracts, without unreasonable efforts due to the variability and complexity associated with predicting the occurrence and financial impact of such special items. For the same reasons, the Company is unable to address the probable significance of the unavailable information, which could be material to future results.

Alcoa expects 2024 total Alumina segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from the prior projection, ranging between 9.8 and 10.0 million metric tons, and between 12.7 and 12.9 million metric tons, respectively. The difference between production and shipments reflects trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to fulfill customer contracts due to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery.

Alcoa expects 2024 total Aluminum segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from the prior projection, ranging between 2.2 and 2.3 million metric tons, and between 2.5 and 2.6 million metric tons, respectively.

Within third quarter 2024 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects sequential unfavorable impacts of $10 million related to bauxite grade in Australia.

Within third quarter 2024 Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects favorable raw material prices of $10 million.

Interest expense in the third quarter 2024 is expected to increase by approximately $5 million due to the assumption of Alumina Limited debt at acquisition closing.

Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, Alcoa expects third quarter operational tax expense to approximate $60 million to $70 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.

Net income attributable to noncontrolling interest will be reported through the closing of the Alumina Limited acquisition in the third quarter and is expected to approximate $20 million.

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