Genasys Inc. (NASDAQ: GNSS) reported Q2 EPS of ($0.16), $0.03 worse than the analyst estimate of ($0.13). Revenue for the quarter came in at $5.7 million versus the consensus estimate of $6.69 million.

Business Outlook

Over the past several weeks, we have had numerous constructive conversations with our Puerto Rican customer, PREPA. As a result of those conversations, we now expect the project in Puerto Rico to generate approximately $75 million in revenue to Genasys. The timing of revenue recognition is not yet clear, however the Company expects to receive an initial award payment, in addition to the return of the $3.5 million bid bond shortly after signing the final terms and conditions of the contract. Design approval and equipment installation is expected to be broken down into seven separate groups of dams, each with their own Emergency Operations Center (EOC). While the initial RFP contemplated completion of all installations within 240 days of the total project approval, the revised approach of sequentially approving and installing groups of dams could extend beyond the end of fiscal 2025.

Regardless of precise timing, the project in Puerto Rico is expected to generate substantial EBITDA and cash. Importantly, by breaking down the project into distinct groups, the cash for deposits, installation, and final approvals is expected to flow consistently over the duration of the project. This approach is expected to lead to overall better margins in our hardware business as overhead absorption should be more distributed, especially as the CROWS 16 program ramps up.

Today’s announced financing is expected to provide adequate resources to enable Genasys to continue growing its software business, while ramping production and deliveries to our hardware customers. Profits from the Puerto Rico dam project and future CROWS 16 deliveries are expected to not only enable timely repayment of the debt obligation, but also strengthen the Company’s balance sheet.

Entering fiscal 2024, we expected a very back end loaded year from a revenue standpoint, given the exceptionally low initial backlog. Though the US DoD budget was passed at the end of March, we have yet to see related funding and subsequent purchase orders flow to Genasys. While funding and orders are still considered likely to progress, and we are very confident that CROWS 16 and the Puerto Rico dam project will drive substantial revenues in fiscal 2025 and beyond, we no longer expect fiscal 2024 hardware revenues to meet prior forecasts. Software revenues are still expected to grow sequentially with ARR at least doubling year over year at fiscal year end.

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