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Elastic (ESTC) down despite Q3 beat amid 'decelerating RPO growth' and AI investments

February 29, 2024 4:42 PM

Elastic N.V. (NYSE: ESTC) reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings and revenue, while Q4 2024 guidance matched analysts’ expectations.

Still, the company’s shares plummeted 11% in premarket trading.

The company’s Q3 earnings per share (EPS) were reported at $0.36, beating analyst expectations of $0.32. Revenue came in at $328 million, also exceeding the consensus estimate of $320.68 million.

The revenue from Elastic Cloud for the quarter stood at $143 million, marking a 29% increase from the previous year.

Regarding customer metrics, Elastic N.V. reported having more than 1,270 customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) exceeding $100,000, up from over 1,220 in Q2 FY24 and over 1,110 in Q3 FY23.

The total subscription customer count was approximately 20,800, up from around 20,700 in Q2 FY24 and over 19,900 in Q3 FY23.

The total remaining performance obligations (RPO) were reported at $1.1 million, marking an 18% year-over-year increase.

Elastic reported a non-GAAP operating margin of 13%.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2024, Elastic N.V. anticipates an EPS in the range of $0.18 to $0.20, aligning closely with the consensus estimate of $0.19.

Revenue is estimated to be between $328 million and $330 million, closely matching the $329.4 million projected by analysts.

“Elastic delivered another strong quarter and I'm pleased with our momentum and execution that drove our third quarter results,” said Ash Kulkarni, CEO of Elastic.

“Customer interest in Generative AI, platform consolidation, and stability in cloud consumption patterns continued to drive momentum in our business in Q3,” he added.

This reinforces our confidence in the business, and in our future growth as more companies choose our search analytics platform as a core part of their IT infrastructure stack for building GenAI applications.”

Jefferies analyst Brent Thill maintained a Buy rating on ESTC while adjusting the target price from $150 to $140.

"We believe the co is in a great fundamental position headed into F4Q, but decelerating RPO growth and increasing investments to address the AI wave are weighing on the stock in the NT," the analyst said in a note.

"We are still believers of the oppty ahead and model rev acceleration in FY25 spearheaded by the new head of sales from Cisco (23-year vet), which will help align the field and partners."

By Vahid Karaahmetovic

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