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Redfin Report: Mortgage Applications Tick Up As Rates Drop From Peak, New Listings Rise

November 16, 2023 8:00 AM

Demand is rising partly due to an uptick in new listings, and listings are increasing partly because sellers are noticing more buyers enter the market

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Mortgage-purchase applications are rising and pending home sales have posted one of their smallest drops in more than a year and a half, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

That marks the second straight week of increases. And while pending home sales were down 8% year over year during the four weeks ending November 12%, that’s one of the smallest declines since April 2022. House hunters are coming off the sidelines because mortgage rates are dropping from their peak: Average rates have declined from a two-decade high of 8% to the 7.4% range in the last month.

Mortgage rates are declining partly because this week’s CPI report shows that inflation is easing. That means it’s almost certain the Fed won’t hike interest rates again this year—and they may start cutting rates earlier than expected.

New listings of homes for sale are up 3% from a year earlier, the biggest increase in two years and just the second increase since July 2022 (the first was last week). The total number of homes for sale is near its highest level since the start of the year. There’s a variety of reasons why more homeowners are putting their homes on the market: Some are noticing the small uptick in homebuyer demand, some are worried home prices are going to decline if they wait any longer, and others are ready to give up their low mortgage rate after realizing rates are unlikely to drop back to pandemic-era levels anytime soon.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity

Value

(if applicable)

Recent change

Year-over-year change

Source

Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

7.45% (Nov. 15)

Down slightly from 7.48% a week earlier, close to lowest level since mid-September

Up from 6.65%

Mortgage News Daily

Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

7.5% (week ending Nov. 9)

Down from two-decade high of 7.79% two weeks earlier

Up from 7.08%

Freddie Mac

Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)

Up 3% from a week earlier (as of week ending Nov. 10)

Down 12%

Mortgage Bankers Association

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)

Essentially unchanged from a month earlier (as of the week ending Nov. 12)

Down 6%

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents

Google searches for “home for sale”

Unchanged from a month earlier (as of Nov. 11)

Down 10%

Google Trends

Touring activity

Down 30% from the start of the year (as of Nov. 6)

At this time last year, it was also down 30% from the start of 2022

ShowingTime, a home touring technology company

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending November 12, 2023

Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.

Four weeks ending November 12, 2023

Year-over-year change

Notes

Median sale price

$367,998

4.2%

Biggest increase in a year. Prices are up partly because elevated mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year.

Median asking price

$378,549

5.6%

Biggest increase in over a year

Median monthly mortgage payment

$2,670 at a 7.5% mortgage rate

13%

Down $70 from the all-time high set 3 weeks earlier

Pending sales

66,773

-8%

New listings

75,912

3.3%

Second year-over-year increase since July 2022. The increase is partly because new listings were falling at this time last year.

Active listings

864,976

-8.7%

Smallest decline since July. Close to their highest level since the start of 2023.

Months of supply

3.7 months

+0.1 pt.

4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.

Share of homes off market in two weeks

35.8%

Up from 32%

Median days on market

34

-2 days

Share of homes sold above list price

28.6%

Up from 27%

Share of homes with a price drop

6.7%

+0.2 pts.

Record high (tied with previous week)

Average sale-to-list price ratio

99%

+0.4 pts.

Lowest level since April

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending November 12, 2023

Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.

Metros with biggest year-over-year increases

Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases

Notes

Median sale price

Anaheim, CA (12.9%)

Cincinnati, OH (12%)

San Diego, CA (11.9%)

Providence, RI (10.9%)

Newark, NJ (10.4%)

Austin, TX (-8.1%)

San Antonio, TX (-3.1%)

Detroit, MI (-1.2%)

Fort Worth, TX (-1%)

Tampa, FL (-0.5%)

Nashville, TN (-0.5%)

Declined in 6 metros

Pending sales

San Jose, CA (12%)

Las Vegas (0.9%)

Detroit (0.7%)

Anaheim, CA (unchanged)

San Francisco (unchanged)

Portland, OR (-22.6%)

Providence, RI (-17%)

Virginia Beach, VA (-16.8%)

New Brunswick, NJ (-16.2%)

New York (-15.7%)

Increased in 3 metros, stayed the same in 2, and declined in the others

New listings

San Jose, CA (24%)

West Palm Beach, FL (19.7%)

Phoenix (15.8%)

Tampa, FL (12.3%)

Montgomery County, PA (11.2%)

Atlanta (-17.8%)

Portland, OR (-15.9%)

Seattle (-9.7%)

Indianapolis, IN (-9.2%)

Newark, NJ (-9.1%)

Declined in roughly half the metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-demand-new-listings-tick-up/

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We also run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with same day tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home in certain markets can have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Customers who buy and sell with Redfin pay a 1% listing fee, subject to minimums, less than half of what brokerages commonly charge. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.5 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email [email protected]. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

Redfin Journalist Services:

Isabelle Novak, 414-861-5861

[email protected]

Source: Redfin

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