Tesla (TSLA) appears to be taking solar share in California - Barclays
Barclays analyst Christine Cho: "We think the value proposition for a TSLA system is more enticing in a solar + storage market (vs. a solar-only
market), and initial datapoints from CA data indicate that TSLA has taken share, primarily in Tiers 1 and 2. It started in April and the momentum has accelerated into May. It appears that SEDG initially gained market share in January and February but then lost market share as ENPH ramped up in March and April, even in the Tier 1 and 2 markets, while TSLA’s share also started to climb. In May, TSLA’s market share materially increased, mostly at the expense of ENPH (and RUN on the installer side). While the dataset for May is not complete and it is somewhat premature to draw definitive conclusions, we think the directional trend of TSLA is a bit alarming. Incidentally, this timing coincides with the commencement of NEM 3.0 applications and we think the nominal savings of a Tesla solar + storage system vs. alternatives is too big to ignore. We would also note that TSLA started going through distribution channels starting in May, so we would also be on the lookout for share gains in Tiers 3 and 4 in the future months. We aren’t sure how successful TSLA is in markets where economics favor solar-only, but would be surprised to see them take share at a similar trajectory."