TotalEnergies SE (NYSE: TTE) reported Q1 EPS of $2.61, $0.08 better than the analyst estimate of $2.53. Revenue for the quarter came in at $58.31 billion versus the consensus estimate of $59.36 billion.

Outlook

After briefly falling below $75/b in mid-March, oil prices rose above $80/b in April, notably due to the decision by some OPEC+ countries to reduce their production quotas to stabilize a market marked by fears of financial crisis and recession.

After several quarters of exceptionally high diesel cracks, European refining margins are easing down because of lower economic growth expectations and high products inventories fueled by Chinese exports and the quicker than anticipated reorganization of Russian flows following the European embargo. Demand for petroleum products could be supported in the coming weeks by the entry into the driving season in the US for gasoline, as well as the global recovery of air traffic for aviation fuel.

Given the evolution of oil and gas prices in recent months and the lag effect on price formulas, TotalEnergies anticipates that its average LNG selling price should be between $10-12/Mbtu in the second quarter 2023.

Given the high inventory levels at the end of winter, European and Asian gas prices are expected to remain stable in the second quarter before rebounding in the second half 2023, driven by restocking gas in Europe before winter and the demand recovery in China, in a context of limited LNG production growth. Futures markets anticipate prices in the range of $18/Mbtu for winter 2023-24.

For the second quarter 2023, TotalEnergies anticipates a hydrocarbon production around 2.5 Mboe/d, LNG sales that should benefit from the restart of Freeport LNG and a utilization rate in refineries up to more than 80% given the end of strikes in France.

The Company confirms its guidance for net investments between $16-18 billion in 2023, including $5 billion in low-carbon energies.

For earnings history and earnings-related data on TotalEnergies SE (TTE) click here.