Rayonier (NYSE: RYN) reported Q4 EPS of $0.11, $0.02 worse than the analyst estimate of $0.13. Revenue for the quarter came in at $214.9 million versus the consensus estimate of $207.68 million.

GUIDANCE:

Rayonier sees FY2023 EPS of $0.36-$0.50, versus the consensus of $0.60.

• In 2023, we expect to achieve net income attributable to Rayonier of $52 to $73 million, EPS of $0.36 to $0.50 and Adjusted EBITDA of $280 to $320 million. We generally expect that results in the first half of the year will be meaningfully lower than results in the second half of the year, as end market demand continues to normalize following the rapid rise in interest rates and associated market volatility. We further expect that year-over-year net income attributable to Rayonier and EPS will be impacted by increased depletion rates in our Southern Timber segment following the completion of our previously announced acquisition of 137,800 acres in the U.S. South for $454 million.
• In our Southern Timber segment, we expect to achieve full-year harvest volumes of 6.7 to 7.0 million tons. The anticipated increase relative to the prior year reflects the additional volume associated with our previously announced acquisitions. We also anticipate higher non-timber income for full-year 2023 as compared to full-year 2022. However, we expect that the increase in harvest volumes and non-timber income will be largely offset by lower weighted average stumpage realizations due to softer demand as well as higher harvest and transportation costs. Overall, we expect full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $145 to $160 million, generally in line with full-year 2022 results.
• In our Pacific Northwest Timber segment, we expect to achieve full-year harvest volumes of approximately 1.5 to 1.6 million tons. The anticipated decrease relative to the prior year reflects recent land sales activity, a more muted domestic demand outlook, and an ongoing mix shift toward Douglas-fir, which has a lower MBF-to-ton conversion ratio. We further expect weighted average pricing to decline relative to full-year 2022 due to weaker macroeconomic conditions and lower lumber prices. Overall, we expect full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $42 to $52 million, a decrease from full-year 2022 results.
• In our New Zealand Timber segment, we expect full-year harvest volumes of 2.5 to 2.7 million tons. We anticipate that stumpage margins will remain under pressure to start the year but are optimistic that export market conditions will gradually improve as the operating environment in China normalizes following the COVID-related disruptions that persisted throughout 2022. We further expect that favorable carbon credit pricing and volumes will contribute to improved results in 2023. Overall, we expect full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $58 to $64 million, an increase from full-year 2022 results.
• Turning to our Real Estate segment, we are encouraged by the continued interest in both our development projects and rural properties despite the higher interest rate environment. However, we anticipate that real estate activity will be significantly weighted to the second half of the year, with relatively limited activity in the first quarter in particular. Overall, we expect full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $68 to $77 million, generally in line with full-year 2022 results.

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