SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) reported Q4 EPS of ($0.15), $0.02 better than the analyst estimate of ($0.17). Revenue for the quarter came in at $286 million versus the consensus estimate of $280.44 million.

GUIDANCE:

SoFi Technologies sees FY2022 revenue of $1.57 billion, versus the consensus of $1.45 billion.

Guidance and Outlook

For note, management expects the incremental net interest income revenue from SoFi Bank to only contribute nominally to first quarter 2022 results, and prior to fully originating loans in SoFi Bank, which is currently expected in May 2022. When SoFi began operating SoFi Bank in February, it did not contribute any existing SoFi loans to SoFi Bank and initially capitalized SoFi Bank entirely with cash. Operations are still in transition to allow loan originations to occur from SoFi Bank. That transition is not expected to be fully complete until the end of May 2022.

Over the last several quarters, SoFi’s unique, diversified business model has proven to be an increasingly powerful competitive advantage. Even as SoFi continues to invest and scale, the expectation is for that strength and momentum to continue.

SoFi’s guidance for the first quarter of 2022 incorporates the negative impact of the unexpected extension of the federal student loan payment moratorium to May 1, 2022. Management estimates the negative impact to be approximately $30 to $35 million of revenue and $20 to $25 million of contribution profit in the first quarter, with the expectation that loan origination levels for the entire quarter will remain consistent with those of the first three quarters of 2021. Management expects to generate $280 to $285 million of adjusted net revenue in the first quarter of 2022, up 30% to 32% year-over-year, and up modestly sequentially, and $0 to $5 million of adjusted EBITDA.

Had the moratorium expired in January, management estimates that first quarter 2022 adjusted revenue would have been in the range of $310 to $320 million, and adjusted EBITDA would have been $20 to $30 million.

For the full year 2022, management expects to grow adjusted net revenue 55% year-over-year, to $1.57 billion, and deliver adjusted EBITDA of $180 million. Several recent developments factor into current full-year guidance:

First, management assumes the moratorium on federal student loan payments expires as currently contemplated on May 1, 2022 and student loan refinance origination volume normalizes to pre-Covid levels partway through the second quarter, and remains at those levels from that point through the remainder of 2022.

Second, management assumes that SoFi Bank will begin contributing to SoFi’s results more meaningfully in the second quarter of 2022, rather than in the first quarter, when SoFi Bank was opened. Because SoFi Bank was initially capitalized with cash from the balance sheet, not loans, SoFi will not begin to realize the lower cost of capital benefits of SoFi Bank until it can originate and fund loans in SoFi Bank. Management believes it will take until the second quarter of 2022 to build the appropriate loan balances to see more than a nominal impact.

Third, management assumes that Technisys revenue growth will be 20% to 25% for full-year 2022, and will begin contributing to SoFi's results following the close of the transaction.

Fourth, management expects the core SoFi business (excluding the impact of Technisys) to deliver incremental adjusted EBITDA margins of 30% in 2022, consistent with previously articulated plans to continue investing to drive sustainable long-term growth. Management expects Technisys to contribute a minimal amount to adjusted EBITDA in 2022, primarily because 2021 was a year of significant investment for Technisys. Over time, management expects the Technisys business to be additive to consolidated incremental adjusted EBITDA margins.

Management currently forecasts Stock-Based Compensation expense of $80 to $85 million for the first quarter of 2022 and $340 million for the full year.

For earnings history and earnings-related data on SoFi Technologies (SOFI) click here.