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Peloton (PTON) Stock Set to Open Sharply Higher on Reported Interest From Amazon (AMZN) and Nike (NKE), Analyst Reaction Mixed

February 7, 2022 5:08 AM

Shares of Peloton (NASDAQ: PTON) are up over 22% in pre-market Monday on multiple reports the company is drawing takeover interest.

The Dow Jones was the first to report that Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is talking to its advisors about making a formal offer for the fitness company. In the meantime, the Financial Times reported that Nike is also contemplating a potential takeover of Peloton. Peloton is still undecided about whether it is available for sale, Reuters said.

These media reports come days after activist investor Blackwells Capital called on Peloton to remove CEO John Foley. A separate investment firm is also pushing for changes and asked the board to put the company up for a sale. According to the firm’s head Jason Aintabi, potential buyers are Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Sony, (NYSE: SONY), or Nike (NYSE: NKE).

For Truist analyst Youssef Squali, Apple and especially Amazon are “the more likely suitors,” assuming Peloton’s founders are interested in selling the company.

“Peloton's connected fitness subscription could be bundled within Amazon Prime (250M worldwide subs, by our ests.) dramatically improving the value proposition of both, and making it extremely hard for fitness competitors to follow suit. Peloton has 2.7M connected fitness subs today, which presumably overlap heavily with Prime subscribers, but Amazon's distribution would further widen the appeal of PTON's offering worldwide, creating a broader base of subscribers over which to amortize the cost of content,” Squali said in a client note.

On the other hand, Cowen analyst John Blackledge is pessimistic about the prospects of Amazon acquiring Peloton. He believes “any sale is unlikely” for the reasons that include “dual-class shares, long-term growth potential / vision of company, & poor fit with reported potential acquirers.”

“We believe any deal is unlikely given (i) PTON's dual class share structure, with a handful of insiders holding the vast majority of super-voting shares; (ii) co-founder / CEO Foley's long-term vision for capturing burgeoning Connected Fitness TAM is still in early innings, with expansion across verticals & geos in coming years, as well as likely higher penetration of broader home fitness market over time; and (iii) poor potential fit with reported suitors, including Amazon,” Blackledge wrote in his memo to clients.

The analyst reminds investors that Peloton’s top 5 officers hold 76.7% of the voting power with the CEO Foley holding 39.6% of the voting power alone. Blackledge is also unsure whether Amazon is a great fit for Peloton.

“AMZN typically sells mass market products & services, whereas Peloton's SKUs are positioned as premium in their category. As an example of this strategy, Amazon's tablets, e-Readers, Alexa speakers, & fitness devices all offer SKUs for around $100 or less, bringing a large potential user base into the company's vast Prime ecosystem. In contrast, PTON's entry level bike costs $1,495 and the high-end Bike+ costs $2,495),” Blackledge added.

Peloton stock price closed at $24.60 on Friday and is now indicated to open just above the $30.00 handle.

By Senad Karaahmetovic | [email protected]

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