Rayonier (NYSE: RYN) reported Q4 EPS of ($0.01), $0.01 worse than the analyst estimate of $0.00. Revenue for the quarter came in at $262 million versus the consensus estimate of $204.15 million.

GUIDANCE:

Rayonier sees FY2022 EPS of $0.57-$0.64, versus the consensus of $0.11.

• In 2022, we expect to achieve net income attributable to Rayonier of $83 to $92 million, EPS of $0.57 to $0.64 and Adjusted EBITDA of $310 to $340 million.
• In our Southern Timber segment, we expect to achieve full-year harvest volumes of 6.3 to 6.6 million tons. The anticipated increase relative to the prior year reflects a rebound in harvest activity following the wet weather conditions and supply chain constraints that negatively impacted full-year 2021 volumes, as well as the expected contribution from recent acquisitions. We also expect a meaningful improvement in weighted average stumpage realizations relative to full-year 2021 driven by strong sawtimber and pulpwood demand, partially offset by higher harvest and transportation costs. Overall, we expect full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $145 to $153 million, a significant increase over full-year 2021 results.
• In our Pacific Northwest Timber segment, we expect to achieve full-year harvest volumes of 1.7 to 1.8 million tons. We expect weighted average pricing to increase modestly relative to full-year 2021 driven by continued strong demand. However, we expect that higher prices will be largely offset by increased harvest and transportation costs. Overall, we expect full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $55 to $60 million, generally in line with full-year 2021 results.
• In our New Zealand Timber segment, we expect full-year harvest volumes of 2.6 to 2.8 million tons. For the full-year, we expect modestly lower export pricing relative to the full-year pricing achieved in 2021. However, as log inventories in China normalize and demand picks up following the Lunar New Year, we expect export pricing to increase from current levels. Seasonally lower volumes, supply chain disruptions and lower pricing are generally expected to result in a lower Adjusted EBITDA contribution from this segment in the first half versus the second half of the year. Overall, we expect full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $68 to $75 million, a decrease from full-year 2021 results.
• Turning to our Real Estate segment, we remain focused on opportunistically unlocking the long-term value of our HBU development and rural property portfolio. Following exceptionally strong Real Estate results in 2021, we currently anticipate more normalized transaction activity in 2022. Overall, we expect full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $70 to $80 million.

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