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Buy the Post-Earnings Dip in Coinbase (COIN) Says Analyst as Q3 Revenue Miss Drags Shares 11% Lower

November 10, 2021 6:45 AM

Shares of Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) are down more than 11% in pre-open Wednesday after the company reported mixed Q3 results.

Coinbase reported Q3 EPS of $1.62 to beat the analyst estimate of $1.57. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.31 billion, well below the consensus estimate of $1.56 billion.

The number of monthly transacting users fell to 7.4 million from 8.8 million in Q2, and compared to 6.1 million a year ago. Revenue missed as trading volume fell to $327 billion from $462 billion in Q2.

“Q3 was a strong quarter for Coinbase marked by deeper customer engagement with our products, continued product innovation, and ongoing industry momentum that we have experienced throughout 2021. We are in the early stages of the development of the cryptoeconomy and are focused on investing for long-term growth,” the company said in a shareholders letter.

On the outlook front, Coinbase guided to full-year monthly transacting users of between 8 million to 8.8 million.

Still, Rosenblatt analyst Sean Horgan reiterated a Buy rating and raised the price target to $455.00 per share from the prior $420.00 on better-than-expected outlook. The analyst urged investors to buy the post-earnings dip in shares and to “continue to add to positions on weakness absent any significant deterioration in market conditions.

“While 3Q fell short of expectations, the updated outlook more than offsets the shortfall, our view. Nevertheless, shares experienced pressure after-hours (down ~13%), which we believe can be chalked up to recent momentum into the quarter. The recent rally in crypto has had a clear impact on shares of COIN (up +44% in the last 30 days vs. HOOD -12%). We believe consensus 4Q (and likely 2022) estimates will be revised higher following the report, which should bode well for the stock into next quarter, while crypto prices reaching all-time-highs also suggests another period of strong volumes ahead is possible,” Horgan said in a client note.

Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev is less bullish as he maintained a Neutral rating and a $300.00 per share price target as 3Q results fell well below expectations.

“3Q saw a dramatic decline in the retail take rate, likely amongst the most dramatic compression in COIN's short history as a public company. This helped drive the significant (nearly 20%) 'miss' in revenue vs. consensus expectations. Of course, there were some positives too. Those include a strong October that is largely out of COIN's control, helped by market tailwinds. This likely led to increasing the FY MTU guide. We remain cautious, as take rate pressures appear to be worsening,” Dolev added.

Coinbase shares closed at $357.39 and are indicated to open at $316.92.

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