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Affirm (AFRM) Surges 17% Following Strong Q4 Results, Outlook

September 9, 2021 4:56 PM

Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM) shares are up 17% after-hours following fourth quarter results, with EPS of ($0.48), missing the consensus estimate of ($0.29), but revenue of $261.8 million (71% year-over-year growth) coming in better than the consensus estimate of $225.29 million.

The buy now pay later (BNPL) providered reported a 106% year-over-year growth in Gross Merchandise Volume to $2.5 billion, or 178% excluding Peloton. The number of Active merchants increased by 412% to nearly 29,000, including several thousand newly integrated Shopify merchants. Note, that the company advanced its exclusive partnership with Shopify in June 2021 by making Shop Pay Installments, which are exclusively powered by Affirm, be available to all eligible Shopify merchants in the U.S.

During the quarter (Aug 2021), the company also announced a partnership with Amazon, offering a flexible payment solution to all U.S. consumers, providing them with an option to split the total cost of purchases (>$50) into simple monthly payments. Currently in the testing phase with selected customers, Amazon is planning to make Affirm more broadly available to its customers in the coming months.

The company provided its Q1/22 outlook, expecting revenue of $240-250 million (vs. consensus of $233.9 million) and GMV of $2.42-$2.52 billion.

For the full 2022-year, the company expects revenue to range from $1.16 to 1.19 billion, versus the Street estimate of $1.17 billion, and GMV to be between $12.45 and $12.75 billion.

Commenting on the results, Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev said GMV and customer growth was "impressive" and guidance looks "very conservative."

Dolev noted that management noted that the partnership with Amazon was “non-exclusive."

"We continue to see significant opportunity from Amazon. As our recent survey of 200 Amazon consumer showed nearly 50% of AMZN shoppers are likely to use BNPL, which we estimate could drive 20-30% potential upside to AFRM's mid-term GMV," he commented.

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