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Morgan Stanley China Research Shows Strong Demand for Apple (AAPL) iPhone 12 Pro But Component Constraint Likely to Persist Into 2Q21

January 14, 2021 8:14 AM

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is continuing to witness high demand for its iPhone 12 Pro model, says Morgan Stanley's Greater China tech analyst Sharon Shih.

The latest checks from China show an order increase in the first quarter of 2021 for 12 Pros while 12 mini orders are down. Based on the latest data, Shih revised down 1Q iPhone 12 mini builds by 2 million units, but on the other hand, hiked iPhone 12 Pro builds by 2 million units.

“We continue to see build orders for iPhone 12 Pro increase, while builds for iPhone 12 mini, 12, as well as 12 Pro Max have started to enter de-stocking. Most notably, the 12 mini appears to be much weaker than our initial expectations,” Shih wrote in today’s note to clients.

“Based on wait times, the iPhone 12 Pro wait time in the US remains above 2 weeks, while the iPhone 12 mini and iPhone 12 wait times are now <1 day, and the iPhone 12 Pro Max is around 4-5 days, suggesting demand for the iPhone 12 Pro remains strong. We will continue to monitor how demand changes throughout the year, but our Apple analyst Katy Huberty is now forecasting total iPhone sales to reach 219mn units in C2021, implying a 13% y/y increase.”

As far as iPad sales are concerned, 4Q20/1Q21 iPad builds estimates are left unchanged at 14.2mn units and 12.2mn units, respectively.

“We expect iPad momentum to continue, and have not heard of any build revisions recently. Therefore, our build forecasts for 4Q and 1Q are unchanged. For 1H21, our checks indicate that there will likely be two new iPad Pro models launching, 11" and 12.9", with the latter equipped with mini-LED display technology,” Shih added.

The data also shows that December’s top 5 NB ODM shipments were 5% above the bank’s projections, while component constraints are likely to hinder the tech giant in the coming months.

“Quanta was 200k units shy of reaching its target of 60mn units for full-year 2020 due to component constraints, but those shipments should be filled in 1Q21. Our checks suggest the constraints could persist throughout 1Q21, at least. Chromebooks continue to be the main driver of NB strength.For January, we now forecast top 5 NB ODMs' shipments to reach 16.4mn units (-8% m/m, +125% y/y), with total 1Qe reaching 44.9mn units (-10% q/q, +90% y/y). While visibility for the full-year remains limited as of now, most NB ODMs are cautiously optimistic on full-year NB demand per our latest checks,” concludes Shih.

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