Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) reported Q4 EPS of $1.81, $0.62 better than the analyst estimate of $1.19. Revenue for the quarter came in at $11.46 billion versus the consensus estimate of $11.01 billion.

Outlook:

For fiscal 2021, USDA indicates domestic protein production (beef, pork, chicken and turkey) should increase approximately 1% from fiscal 2020 levels. The following is a summary of the outlook for each of our segments, as well as an outlook for revenues, capital expenditures, net interest expense, liquidity, tax rate and dividends for fiscal 2021. On an adjusted basis, we anticipate the Beef and Pork segments will remain strong, although not at fiscal 2020 levels, and we believe the Chicken and Prepared Foods segments will likely strengthen in fiscal 2021 as compared to fiscal 2020.2

• COVID-19 – We continue to proactively manage the company and its operations through this global pandemic. Given the nature of our business, demand for food and protein may shift amongst sales channels and experience disruptions, but over time we expect worldwide demand to continue to increase. We are experiencing multiple challenges related to the pandemic. These challenges are anticipated to increase our operating costs and negatively impact our volumes into fiscal 2021. We cannot currently predict the ultimate impact that COVID-19 will have on our short- and long-term demand, as it will depend on, among other things, the severity and duration of the COVID-19 crisis. Our liquidity is expected to be adequate to continue to run our operations and meet our obligations as they become due.
• Beef – USDA projects domestic production will increase approximately 2% in fiscal 2021 as compared to a COVID-19 impacted fiscal 2020. For fiscal 2021, we also expect sufficient supplies in regions where we operate our plants.
• Pork – USDA projects relatively flat to slightly increased domestic production in fiscal 2021 as compared to a COVID-19 impacted fiscal 2020.
• Chicken – USDA projects a relatively flat to slightly increased outlook for chicken production in fiscal 2021 as compared to fiscal 2020.
• Prepared Foods – We will continue to be responsive to changes in consumer behavior as a result of the impacts of COVID-19 as we move into fiscal 2021.
• International/Other – We expect improved results from our foreign operations in fiscal 2021.
• Revenue – We expect sales to be $42 billion to $44 billion for fiscal 2021.
• Capital Expenditures – For fiscal 2021, we expect capital expenditures to be approximately $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion. Capital expenditures include spending for capacity expansion, growth, safety, animal well-being, infrastructure replacements and upgrades, and operational improvements that are expected to result in production and labor efficiencies, yield improvements and sales channel flexibility.
• Net Interest Expense – We expect net interest expense to approximate $440 million for fiscal 2021.
• Liquidity – We expect total liquidity, which was approximately $3.2 billion at October 3, 2020, to remain above our minimum liquidity target of $1.0 billion.
• Tax Rate – We currently expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be around 23% in fiscal 2021.
• Dividends – Effective November 13, 2020, the Board of Directors increased the quarterly dividend previously declared on August 6, 2020, to $0.445 per share on our Class A common stock and $0.4005 per share on our Class B common stock. The increased quarterly dividend is payable on December 15, 2020, to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 1, 2020. The Board also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.445 per share on our Class A common stock and $0.4005 per share on our Class B common stock, payable on March 15, 2021, to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 1, 2021. We anticipate the remaining quarterly dividends in fiscal 2021 will be $0.445 and $0.4005 per share of our Class A and Class B stock, respectively. This results in an annual dividend rate in fiscal 2021 of $1.78 for Class A shares and $1.602 for Class B shares, or a 6% increase compared to the fiscal 2020 annual dividend rate.
• 2 The Company is not able to reconcile its full-year fiscal 2021 adjusted results to its fiscal 2021 projected GAAP results because certain information necessary to calculate such measure on a GAAP basis is unavailable or dependent on the timing of future events outside of our control. Therefore, because of the uncertainty and variability of the nature of the amount of future adjustments, which could be significant, the Company is unable to provide a reconciliation of this measure without unreasonable effort. Adjusted measures should not be considered a substitute for operating margin or any other measures of financial performance reported in accordance with GAAP. Investors should rely primarily on the Company’s GAAP results and use non-GAAP financial measures only supplementally in making investment decisions.

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