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Uber (UBER) Misses Q3 Estimates But Wall Street Remain Bullish on 'Incredibly Strong' Eats Performance

November 6, 2020 8:05 AM

Uber (NYSE: UBER) reported a loss of $0.62 per share for the third quarter, to miss the Street's consensus of $0.65 cents per share expected.

Uber share price initially plunged about 4% in after-hours trading before rallying higher to trade 1.7% lower in pre-open Friday.

Revenue was reported at $3.13 billion which is better than $3.20 billion expected from the market’s analysts. Overall, Uber lost $1.09 billion on a GAAP basis, but still did slightly better when compared to a $1.16 billion loss a year ago.

“Despite an uneven pandemic response and broader economic uncertainty, our global scope, diversification, and the team’s tireless execution delivered steadily improving results, with total company Gross Bookings down just 6% year-on-year in September,” said Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO.

On a more positive note, Uber said Mobility Gross Bookings nearly doubled from Q2 levels to $5.91 billion, while its delivery business continues to help offset losses from the ride-hailing business.

Delivery gross bookings erupted 135% year-on-year to $8.55 billion.

“Our Mobility segment generated $245 million in Adjusted EBITDA, up nearly $200 million quarter-over-quarter, while we also improved Delivery Adjusted EBITDA margins by more than 10 percentage points. Through continued strong execution and cost discipline, we remain confident in our ability to achieve quarterly Adjusted EBITDA profitability before the end of 2021,” added Khosrowshahi.

James Lee from Mizuho sees the latest results as “mixed” for UBER as “Mobility missed expectations but Eats outperformed.” He raised the price target from $47.00 to $50.00 and maintained a “Buy” rating.

“Despite mix shift to Eats, EBITDA was in line with expectations on strong cost controls. As Eats continues to gain scale, UBER expects to break even in FY21. In addition, UBER will look into cutting costs for ATG and other bets, which totaled over $300m losses YTD. We believe this is the right move and is consistent with our consolidated EBITDA break-even expectation in FY21. With increased confidence in the long-term forecast, we are raising our FY23 EBITDA multiple to 18x from 17x, within the trading range of 16x to 20x,” Lee wrote in today’s note.

Wedbush’s Daniel Ives looks more bullish than Lee on Uber’s results. He describes Q3 earnings as “better than feared” with Eats being “the star of the show”.

“Delivery/ Uber Eats volume was incredibly strong at +135% (excluding the impact of UE India), and growing faster than most competitors in the US and internationally. The delivery business continues to be a major bright spot for Uber, highlighting the benefit of the diversified model. And while the segment continues to be a drag on EBITDA in a still heightened competitive environment Uber expects to reach profitability in that segment next year,” the analyst said in a note sent on Friday.

He adds that the news of Prop 22 passing on Tuesday has removed one of the biggest challenges and clouds over the stock.

“Rides were -50% in 3Q, and are still trending ~-40% in 4Q, which is a major rebound from the -90%+ metrics we witnessed in the spring and speaks to an impressive demand snapback for Uber in a very difficult environment. Uber continues to expect to hit EBITDA profitability by the end of 2021 which remains a laser focus for the Street.”

Ives maintained an “Outperform” rating and raised the price objective to $49.00 per share from earlier $41.00, citing the strength in Eats business and Prop 22 passing.

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