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Ford (F) Share Price Gaps 6% Higher As Robust 3Q Pushes Price Targets Higher

October 29, 2020 11:01 AM

Shares of Ford (NYSE: F) gapped about 6% higher on Thursday after the company reported an extremely positive set of numbers for the third quarter.

Ford posted an adjusted EPS of $0.65 cent, blowing away the $0.09 expected from the analysts. Revenue in its automotive revenue came in at $34.71 billion versus $33.51 billion expected.

“We know that there’s huge value to be unlocked as we turn around our automotive operations,” said Jim Farley, Ford’s president and CEO. “There will be additional opportunity when we start growing again, which we will do with products and services customers can’t resist.”

Adjusted pretax earnings were reported at $3.6 billion, while net profit stood at $2.34 billion from roughly $423 million a year earlier. Ford now expects 2020 adjusted EBIT of $0.6 billion to $1.1bn.

“We executed very well this quarter,” Ford CFO John Lawler said Wednesday during a media briefing. “We saw much higher demand than what we expected.”

BofA’s analyst John Murphy described Q3 results as “impressive,” prompting him to raise the price target to $10.50.

“Following the quarter, we are raising our 2020 estimates largely to reflect the 3Q beat, as well as slightly adjusting our out-year forecasts (see side table). We are also raising our price objective from $9 to $10.50, which remains based on ~3.5x EV/EBITDAP on our 2021-22 estimates, and encouragingly reflects the full repayment of Ford’s $15bn+ corporate revolver in the quarter,” Murphy said in today’s note.

The analyst took note of solid volumes, very favorable price/mix that support very high margins, and very strong FCF generation.

“We are particularly encouraged by Ford’s 3Q results given what has been a lack of consistent execution over the last few years. In our view, the impressive 3Q:20 may be a harbinger of more solid results to come in 2021+, as Ford hits stride with a very strong product cadence and realizes the benefits of its Global Redesign efforts.”

Similarly, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas said that it’s now up to Ford’s management to support and grow the multiple from here.

“Investors are getting excited around the prospects of a strong product cycle timed with cost reduction and a more frugal and decisive strategic vision following recent management changes. While we currently have an OW rating, we note that after hours, the stock is trading above our $8 price target,” Jonas said in a note on Thursday.

The price target of Ford was also raised at Credit Suisse ($9), RBC Capital ($9), and others.

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