Boise Cascade (NYSE: BCC) reported Q1 EPS of $0.31, $0.14 worse than the analyst estimate of $0.45. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.17 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.09 billion.

Outlook

The full impacts of the global emergence of COVID-19 on our business and financial results are currently unknown. We are conducting business with modifications to our manufacturing production levels, mill and distribution center housekeeping and cleanliness protocols, employee travel, employee work locations, and virtualization or cancellation of certain sales and marketing events, among other modifications. We have observed other companies as well as various governmental agencies taking precautionary and preemptive actions to address COVID-19, and further actions may yet be taken that alter our normal business operations as well as those in our industry. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has designated the forest products industry, and thereby wood products manufacturing and building materials distribution, as part of the Essential Critical Infrastructure Workforce. However, state and local agencies are not mandated to follow the DHS designations, and in certain geographies across the U.S., additional restrictions have been imposed that further limit or preclude residential construction activity.

Given the current outlook and with sufficient inventory on hand, our Wood Products segment has implemented changes to reduce the volume of EWP and plywood it will produce. In April 2020, we temporarily curtailed or reduced operating schedules at essentially all of our manufacturing facilities, and we expect to continue temporary curtailment of certain operations until market conditions improve. All of our distribution facilities continue to operate, but at reduced activity levels, particularly at locations whose trade areas have been subject to additional state or local restrictions. We expect activity levels across our distribution network to continue to vary widely as COVID-19 impacts geographies across the U.S. to differing degrees and federal, state or local restrictions are implemented or rescinded. To date, we have not experienced disruptions to our supply chain and have been able to source the necessary raw materials and finished goods needed by our operations. We continue to actively monitor evolving developments and may take further actions that alter our business operations as may be required by federal, state or local authorities, or that we determine are in the best interests of our associates, customers, suppliers and stockholders.

Demand for the products we manufacture, as well as the products we purchase and distribute, is closely correlated with new residential construction in the U.S., which has been historically cyclical. To a lesser extent, demand for our products correlates with residential repair-and-remodeling activity and light commercial construction. The full impacts of the global emergence of COVID-19 on housing starts, residential repair-and-remodeling activity, and light commercial construction is uncertain. However, economists predict that housing starts will be negatively impacted compared to expectations prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. As of April 2020, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators consensus forecast for 2020 and 2021 single- and multi-family housing starts in the U.S. were 1.16 million and 1.25 million units, respectively, compared with actual housing starts of 1.29 million in 2019, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Based upon current housing market indices, among other indicators, housing start levels for the second quarter of 2020 are likely to be below 1.00 million on a seasonally adjusted annual basis.

Although we believe that current U.S. demographics are supportive of higher levels of housing starts, we expect the economic consequences of COVID-19 to negatively impact residential construction. In particular, COVID-19 is expected to adversely affect the pace of household formation rates and residential repair-and-remodeling activity due to high unemployment rates, lower wages, low consumer confidence, prospective home buyers' lack of ability to view homes in person, prospective home buyers' access to and cost of financing, and housing affordability, as well as other factors. Household formation rates in turn will be a key factor behind the demand for new construction.

Robust construction activity in the first two months of 2020, as evidenced by seasonally adjusted annual rates of housing starts around 1.6 million, drove sharp increases in commodity products pricing that peaked in mid-March. However, concerns and uncertainty about the impacts of COVID-19 since then have negatively impacted residential construction activity and building products demand, resulting in curtailments of production across the industry and a sharp decline in commodity prices. Current composite panel and lumber prices are approximately 15% below the peaks of mid-March 2020 and are at similar levels to those experienced in second quarter 2019. We anticipate that commodity products pricing in the second quarter of 2020 will remain at current low levels, with the balance of the year subject to price volatility that will be dependent on the impact of COVID-19 on residential construction, industry operating rates, net import and export activity, transportation constraints or disruptions, inventory levels in various distribution channels, and seasonal demand patterns.

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