Boise Cascade (NYSE: BCC) reported Q3 EPS of $0.69, $0.01 better than the analyst estimate of $0.68. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.27 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.26 billion.

“Despite the lack of growth in residential construction and ongoing weakness in commodity wood products pricing that has persisted this year, both of our businesses continue to execute well. BMD delivered outstanding financial results during the third quarter, with solid growth in general line product sales and gross margins. With the operating footprint changes made during the last year, our favorable performance in EWP is more evident in Wood Products' results. The stability of EWP, together with input cost improvements, mitigated the overall earnings impact of the significant year-over-year decline in plywood pricing,” commented Tom Corrick, CEO. “Our operating results have positioned us to comfortably fund our bolt-on acquisitions and internal growth initiatives while strengthening our balance sheet. As part of our capital allocation process, I am pleased our board approved an 11% increase in our regular quarterly dividend to $0.10 per share, as well as a supplemental dividend of $1.00 per share, both payable in December. This is consistent with our objective of generating favorable returns on our shareholders’ invested capital. We remain well positioned to fund anticipated working capital needs in early 2020, as well as having flexibility to take advantage of internal growth initiatives and acquisition opportunities which may occur in the next six to nine months.”

Outlook

We expect to experience seasonally slower demand growth for the products we manufacture and distribute in fourth quarter 2019. The October 2019 Blue Chip consensus forecast for 2019 and 2020 reflects 1.25 million and 1.27 million total U.S. housing starts, respectively, compared with actual housing starts of 1.25 million in 2018. Although we believe U.S. demographics are supportive of higher levels of housing starts, we expect near-term residential construction growth to be flat to slightly down due to constraints faced by builders, such as availability of labor and building lots, as well as affordability constraints faced by prospective buyers. The pace of household formation rates and residential repair-and-remodeling activity will be affected by employment growth, wage growth, prospective home buyers' access to and cost of financing, housing affordability, and consumer confidence, as well as other factors. Household formation rates in turn will be a key factor behind the demand for new construction. In addition, the size of new single-family residences as well as the mix of single and multi-family starts will influence product consumption. We will continue to manage our production levels to our sales demand. As in past years, we plan to take scheduled capital and maintenance-related downtime at certain plywood facilities during the fourth quarter.

Weak commodity products pricing experienced in the first half of 2019 continued throughout third quarter 2019 as weaker year-to-date residential construction activity and additional industry capacity brought on in 2018 have led to supply and demand imbalances. Commodity product pricing during the remainder of 2019 and into 2020 will be a key driver of our financial results and will be dependent on industry operating rates, net import and export activity, transportation constraints or disruptions, inventory levels in various distribution channels, and seasonal demand patterns. We anticipate that commodity products pricing in the fourth quarter of 2019 will remain at low absolute, although more stable, levels compared to fourth quarter 2018.

We expect our capital spending, excluding acquisitions, to be $85-$95 million in 2019, including spending to improve the efficiency of our veneer production at our Chester, South Carolina, and Florien, Louisiana, facilities. In addition, we expect our capital spending, excluding acquisitions, to also be $85-$95 million in 2020. We expect fourth quarter 2019 financial results to be improved compared with fourth quarter 2018. Included in Wood Products fourth quarter 2018 results were certain items that negatively affected reported earnings. These items include $24.0 million of pre-tax impairment and sale related losses related to the sale of our hardwood plywood facility in Moncure, North Carolina, and $55.0 million and $2.8 million, respectively, of pre-tax accelerated depreciation and other curtailment related costs due to the permanent curtailment of LVL production at our Roxboro, North Carolina, facility.

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