Albany International (NYSE: AIN) reported Q4 EPS of $0.74, in-line with the analyst estimate of $0.74. Revenue for the quarter came in at $251.6 million versus the consensus estimate of $242.23 million.

• Net sales were $251.6 million, an increase of 11.0% compared to 2017 (see Table 2). Excluding the impact of adoption of the ASC 606 revenue recognition standard and currency translation effects, Net sales increased 14.5% (see Table 3).
• Net income attributable to the Company was $17.6 million ($0.55 per share), compared to $5.9 million ($0.18 per share) in Q4 2017. Q4 2018 Net income attributable to the Company was increased by $2.5 million ($0.08 per share) as a result of adopting ASC 606 (see Table 16).
• Net income attributable to the Company, excluding adjustments (a non-GAAP measure), was $0.74 per share, compared to $0.44 per share in Q4 2017 (see Table 20).
• Adjusted EBITDA (a non-GAAP measure) was $57.7 million, compared to $43.4 million in Q4 2017 (see Tables 10 and 11).

CFO Comments

CFO and Treasurer John Cozzolino said, “Cash flow in Q4 was very good due to strong operating results and improved working capital. The improvement in working capital reflects a number of 2018 initiatives, especially in AEC, which are driving improved working capital efficiency. Cash balances increased about $37 million to a total of $198 million, while total debt decreased just over $5 million to $525 million as of the end of the year. The combined effect of the reported changes in cash and total debt resulted in a $42 million Q4 decrease in net debt (total debt less cash, see Table 22), to an end of year balance of $327 million. The improvement in Q4 was more than enough to offset the year-to-date Q3 increase in net debt, as net debt for the year declined about $5 million. The Company’s leverage ratio, as defined in our revolving credit facility, was 1.96 at the end of Q4 as compared to 2.05 at the end of Q3, well below our current limit of 3.75.

“In Q4, as part of the Company’s continued efforts to de-risk our global defined benefit pension plans, about $13 million of pension liabilities in Canada were transferred to an insurance Company. Existing plan assets were used to execute the transfer of the liabilities and the pension plan remained fully funded after the transaction. The extinguishment of this liability generated a pension settlement charge of about $2 million, related to the recognition of unamortized actuarial losses.

“Capital expenditures during the quarter were about $22 million, consistent with the expected range of $20 million to $25 million per quarter. We expect capital expenditures in 2019 to continue in that range per quarter throughout the year, as the Company continues to invest in equipment to support multiple ramp-ups in AEC. We also expect depreciation and amortization in 2019 to decrease to a range of $70 million to $75 million primarily due to lower depreciation in MC.

“The Company’s income tax rate based on income from continuing operations was 31.3% in 2018 compared to 32.0% in 2017. Cash paid for income taxes was about $8 million in Q4 and $28 million for 2018. Based on the Company’s current estimate of the mix of earnings in the countries where we do business, we anticipate the 2019 tax rate on income from continuing operations to be in the range of 29% to 31%. Cash taxes in 2019 are expected to be in the range of $28 million to $30 million.

“As noted earlier in this release, the Company adopted ASC 606 at the beginning of 2018. As part of our continued efforts to ensure the successful adoption of this new revenue accounting standard, implementation issues were discovered in Q4 that caused an immaterial overstatement in revenue and income previously reported for the first nine months of 2018 (see Table 1A). The implementation issues were related to certain MC contracts in which the Company satisfies its performance obligation in advance of delivery. During Q4, the issues were corrected and additional internal controls were employed to ensure the accuracy of reported MC revenue and income for both the current quarter and the full year.”

CEO Comments

CEO Olivier Jarrault commented, “Q4 2018 was once again a very good quarter for Albany International as strong performance continued across both businesses. Total Company Net sales increased 11%, or 15% excluding the impact of ASC 606 and currency translation effects. Compared to Q4 2017, Net income and Adjusted EBITDA both increased sharply. Net income increased to $17 million while Adjusted EBITDA grew to $58 million due to higher sales and productivity improvements in both MC and AEC.

“MC sales in the fourth quarter, excluding the impact of ASC 606 and currency translation effects, increased 4% compared to Q4 2017. Globally, MC sales grew in both the packaging and publication grades, with particular strength in North America.

“MC gross margin in Q4 increased to 48.6% compared to 45.0% in Q4 2017, primarily due to higher sales and improved plant utilization. Operating income and Adjusted EBITDA both increased significantly compared to Q4 2017, with Adjusted EBITDA improving to $51 million in the quarter.

“For the full year, MC Net sales, excluding the impact of ASC 606 and currency translation effects, increased 3% compared to 2017 with increases in all major paper grades. The increase in Net sales reflects our continued global leadership in product innovation, our superior customer service levels, and our commitment to outstanding application engineering. Operating income and Adjusted EBITDA both increased sharply compared to 2017, with Adjusted EBITDA growing to $212 million, reflecting strong process productivity improvement and the impact of our continuous focus on cost reduction initiatives.

“Looking at 2019, the MC business is well-positioned to maintain relatively stable sales, with Adjusted EBITDA once again higher than the historical range of $180 million to $195 million. Assuming no significant changes in global economic conditions or currency rates, we expect 2019 Adjusted EBITDA to be between $195 million and $205 million.

“Q4 was another quarter of strong, improving performance for AEC, with significant growth in Net sales, Operating income and Adjusted EBITDA compared to Q4 2017. Net sales, excluding the impact of ASC 606 and currency translation effects, increased 34%, while profitability continued to improve compared to Q4 2017.

“The increase in sales in Q4 was substantially driven by the LEAP program. Sales of fan cases, fan blades and spacers for LEAP engines, which represented about 44% of AEC Q4 2018 sales, grew 31% compared to Q4 2017, reflecting AEC’s continued execution related to the unprecedented steep ramp-up of this jet engine program. Higher sales of Boeing 787 fuselage frames, as well as F-35 and CH-53K components, also contributed to the growth in sales. Combined sales for these three programs grew 43% compared to Q4 2017.

“AEC Operating income continued to improve as it grew to $6.7 million in Q4, compared to $0.6 million in Q4 2017. Adjusted EBITDA also continued to improve in the quarter as it increased to $18.1 million, or 17.9% of Net sales, compared to $10.8 million, or 14.1% of Net sales, in Q4 2017. The increase in both Operating income and Adjusted EBITDA reflects not only higher sales volume, but also productivity improvements resulting from the deployment of a disciplined standardized operational system across our AEC plants, as well as the favorable impact of our continuous improvement program. The AEC team is improving quality and on-time delivery to our customers despite increasing demand and record shipment levels.

“For the full year 2018, AEC Net sales, excluding the impact of ASC 606 and currency translation effects, increased 36% compared to 2017, exceeding the upper end of the 20% to 30% range we discussed in past quarters. Sales related to the LEAP program were the largest driver of this increase, along with growth in sales of Boeing 787 fuselage frames and F-35 and CH-53K components. AEC’s profitability also showed strong improvement in 2018 with sharp increases in Operating income and Adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA in 2018 grew to $63 million or 17.1% of Net sales.

“In R&D, our new product development activities – which focus on existing, derivative and new technologies – and our process improvement projects – which aim to optimize our operational performance across AEC – continued in Q4 to build upon the progress of prior quarters. Our continued execution on our major existing contracts, as well as on anticipated new contract wins provides the potential for AEC to reach annual sales of $500 million to $550 million in 2020. As I have stated in previous quarters, the potential for AEC beyond 2020 will be based not only on executing on the continued ramp up of existing programs on which we are already well established, but also on increasing share or acquiring first-time content on ramping programs, while at the same time winning new contracts on future commercial and defense airframe and engine platforms.

“In 2019, we expect AEC to continue to substantially grow sales with further incremental improvement in profitability compared to 2018. Full-year 2019 Net sales are expected to grow in the range of 20% to 25%, driven by higher sales of fan blades, fan cases and spacers for the LEAP program, and components for the CH-53K, F-35 and Boeing 787 programs, as well as by our advanced technologies development work in support of next-gen engine programs. Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of Net sales should show some incremental improvement compared to 2018, keeping AEC on track toward our goal of 18% to 20% Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of Net sales in 2020.

“Overall, Q4 was another very good quarter for the Company, completing a year of outstanding financial performance in both businesses. MC Net sales, Operating income and Adjusted EBITDA all increased in Q4 and for the full-year compared to 2017, with Adjusted EBITDA well ahead of the upper end of the historical range of $180 million to $195 million. MC is well positioned for relatively stable sales in 2019 and with the potential for Adjusted EBITDA in 2019 between $195 million and $205 million. AEC had another strong quarter with growth in Net sales, Operating income and Adjusted EBITDA, completing a very successful year. AEC is expected to continue to grow substantially in 2019, with additional incremental improvement in profitability compared to 2018.”

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