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Netflix (NFLX) PT Raised to $440 at RBC Capital Following Positive U.S. and UK Survey

September 6, 2018 5:11 AM

(Updated - September 6, 2018 6:26 AM EDT)

(updated to add analsyt comments)

RBC Capital analyst Mark Mahaney raised the price target on Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) to $440.00 (from $360.00) while maintaining an Outperform rating.

The price target raise follows a positive U.S. & UK survey results and a deep dive into the Indian market.

Mahaney highlighted the following key findings from the U.S. survey:

1) Penetration Levels Up Q/Q and Y/Y: 57% of respondents watch Netflix (up from 55% in May ’18 and 53% in September ‘17), with YouTube (51%), Amazon (46%) & Hulu (33%) also increasing.

2) Consistently Strong Customer Satisfaction Trends : 68% of NFLX subs are “Extremely” or “Very Satisfied” – similar to results of the last five quarters, with only 4.5% “Slightly” or “Not At All Satisfied”.

3) Churn Likely Remains At Low Levels, Tho A Bit Of Caution : 84% of Subs “Not At All Likely” or “Slightly Likely” to cancel in next 3 months, similar Q/Q but below the 87% average of the last 5 qtrs; and 9% “Very” or “Extremely Likely“ to cancel, modestly up Q/Q and the highest we have seen in some time.

He highlighted the following from the 'very positive' UK survey:

1) Record High Penetration Levels: 56% of UK respondents watch Netflix, up Y/Y from 49% and for the first time surpassing YouTube (49%) and ahead of Amazon Video (36%).

2) Improving Customer Satisfaction: 80% of UK subs were “Extremely” or “Very Satisfied”, similar Y/Y, but with “Slightly” or “Not At All Satisfied” at a Record Low 2%.

3) Record Low Churn Levels: A Record High 71% were “Not At All” or “Slightly Likely” to cancel in the next 3 months, with a Record Low 21% “Very” or “Extremely Likely” to cancel.

On India, the analyst notes India ranks as the #10th largest market in terms of fixed broadband subs (18MM). Netflix's original Indian series Sacred Games has become highly popular in India. The firm's conclusion is that India could well be a source of millions of new Netflix subs over the next few years, although the company has a lot of work to do.

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