Tesla Motors (TSLA) Go Private is a Distraction - Vertical Group's Gordon Johnson
Vertical Group analyst Gordon Johnson lowered his price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $88.00 (from $93.00) while maintaining a Sell rating.
Johnson believes the wrench in the wheel for the bulls on Tesla should be the over-flow of inventory sitting in parking lots. He reminds clients that "TSLA states its cars are made to order" which means orders are there and cars are not moving for distribution.
This is akin to a pizza shop. Think of pizza orders coming in, made to order, then sitting and sitting on the oven going nowhere. That's a bit of an issue. What Johnson is trying to make clear to clients is two things:
- Cars are made to order and they are going nowhere and,
- M3 demand has basically dried up after the configuration which is evident in the chart below from TSLA's key market in Norway.
What the firm is trying to make clear, according to a phone interview with StreetInsider, is that the Go-Private discussions we're growing accustomed to are merely a distraction.
Demand in China is falling. Demand in Norway is falling. Cars made to order are sitting around and not being sent.
Furthermore, even though Tesla believes it has "#FundingSecured" the same was said for Lehman in 2008 when Korea Development Bank confirmed talks to acquire the company until the books were reviewed and Lehman was left in the street fail on its own, as Johnson reminds clients in an early Wednesday research note.
Johnson's view is that the business doesn't make sense, the economics of it all are not favorable, and this Go-Private commentary is nothing more than a basic distraction from the declining business. Oh, and there is an issue with liquidity also as convertibles are due up in November and 2019 around $360 per share.
As Johnson writes in his note"...we believe similar to KDB’s experience w/ Lehman, once any potential buyer gets into TSLA’s books, the prospect of a $40bn-$50bn investment will evaporate."
It's not about going private or not, it's about the economics of the business at hand.
The analyst shared video showing thousands of cars accumulating in Louise Ave. Parking Lot (drone footage taken August 12).
And video showing thousands of TSLA Model 3 Cars Accumulating in Harlan Rd. Parking Lot/Facility (drone footage taken Aug. 12)
