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Lower Growth is 'New Normal' for Chipotle (CMG), UBS Warns in Downgrade to Sell

February 1, 2018 11:07 AM

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) shares are down over 4% Thursday morning on a downgrade from UBS to Sell (from Neutral) and a new price target of $290 (from $345).

Analyst Dennis Geiger sees a "new normal of lower growth" from CMG, while cautioning clients about the current "unfavorable risk/reward" dynamics, as CMG management remains challenged by "depressed" brand perception, growing competition, failed sales initiatives and "ambitious" unit development comps. Even the benefits of tax reform are expected to be washed away by slower same-store sales, margin pressure from labor inflation and investments.

CMG continues to suffer from declining online customer review scores, going back to 2010, with recent data pointing to new historic lows. Geiger further highlights his concern regarding the damaged CMG brand, writing, "challenged brand perceptions are a headwind to sales and earnings inflection... we remain concerned about deteriorating review trends."

The valuation at $290 implies a 13 rimes NTM EBITDA multiple 12 months from now, following a reduction to 2018 EBITDA, same store sales, unit growth and EPS estimates.

The new price target represents 10% downside from Wednesday's close.

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