Earnings Pressure Could Force Packaged Food M&A in 2017; Mondelez (MDLZ) and Pinnacle Foods (PF) Seen as Targets - RBC
In his 2017 packaged food sector outlook, RBC Capital analyst David Palmer said increasing earnings pressure and the potential for rising rates may pressure companies to pursue accretive M&A and additional cost savings programs.
He said lean-cost companies such as Conagra (NYSE: CAG), Pinnacle Foods (NYSE: PF) and Kraft Heinz (NYSE: KHC) may be poised to "reload" with the next deal.
In addition, profitable volume growth - supported by revenue and trade promotion management - will also play an increasingly important part in 2017, he said.
The analyst continues to believe a Kraft-Heinz acquisition of Mondelez (NYSE: MDLZ) and a Conagra Brands acquisition of Pinnacle Foods are two of the most likely large-scale M&A scenarios tied to their coverage.
The analyst listed the following 6 food themes:
#1: Perimeter deflation will likely slow and that may not be all bad
#2: Rise of the small brands
#3: Will pressure from 3G Capital inspire new cost savings announcements to offset diminishing savings step-ups from past initiatives?
#4: Exploring trade promotion optimization from another angle
#5: How would changes to taxes and trade relations affect Food earnings? Is immigration reform a dark horse catalyst for Big Food demand?
#6: Why did Food volumes begin to decelerate in US measured channels this summer, and will they improve in 2017 and 2018?
The firm adjusted PTs in the group:
- MDLZ (OP) to $54 from $56
- KHC (OP) to $100 from $99
- BGS (OP) to $54 from $57
- K (SP) to $84 from $86
- GIS (SP) to $68 from $69
