H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AUPH) and raised its price target to $10.00 (from $7.00). Comments follow the release of AURA-LV trial earlier this week.

Analyst Ed Arce said investors focused only on the number of deaths, and appeared to attribute them largely to voclosporin, in spite of the natural history of the disease.

Arce explained, "On Monday, AUPH shares dropped 55.8% (vs. NBI +0.9%) as investors fretted over the number of deaths in the study. Yet, we are less concerned with the rate of deaths, which we view as well within the range of recent analogues (see table). Rather, our focus is on the imbalance of deaths (and SAEs) across the treatment arms, which we believe is likely due, in large part, to the degree of patients enrolled from sites in Asia, as we discuss in more detail below. On the whole, while results from AURA-LV carried some noisy data and unexplained imbalances, after further analysis, we have grown confident that voclosporin has the potential to be combined with CellCept as the new SOC for the treatment of active LN. This believe results from our more nuanced view that the results of AURA-LV, if confirmed or perhaps even improved upon in a Phase 3 trial, tips the scales of overall risk-benefit, which has long been the ultimate arbiter of approvability for the FDA."

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Shares of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals closed at $2.31 yesterday.