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MKM Partners Raises Price Target on Vail Resorts (MTN) as Season Pass Sales Show Window to FY17

June 10, 2016 10:55 AM

MKM Partners reiterated a Buy rating on Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN), and raised the price target to $150.00 (from $147.00), following the company's 3Q earnings report. MTN's strong results were highlighted with robust season pass sales that provided visibility to FY17. Season pass sales and walk-ups each represent 50% of total visitation. Season pass sales were +29% in units compared to +12% in units at the same time last year.

Analyst Christopher Agnew commented, "MTN reported another strong quarter (revenue, EBITDA and EPS all ahead of consensus) and raised FY16 guidance, but our key takeaway was its season-to-date season pass sales update (+29%/+34% in units/sales $), which provides strong visibility to lift ticket revenues (~40% of total revenue) and represents ~50% of season passes sold for the 15/16 ski season. The pace of season pass sales will slow as the selling period comes to a close at the end of this year; however, we are confident that pass sales will accelerate from the 15/16 pace: (1) the season-to-date metrics are soundly ahead of last year's pace, (2) potential upside from the ability to target skiers near Wilmot, and (3) the increasingly sophisticated CRM (analytics and targeted marketing). With better earnings visibility and a strong balance sheet with optionality, we reiterate our Buy rating and increase our PT to $150 (from $147) on the same 12.0x multiple."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Vail Resorts click here. For more ratings news on Vail Resorts click here.

Shares of Vail Resorts closed at $139.20 yesterday.

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