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Alcoa (AA) Tops Q1 EPS by 5c; Updates on Arconic Separation

April 11, 2016 4:25 PM

(Updated - April 11, 2016 5:06 PM EDT)

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) reported Q1 EPS of $0.07, $0.05 better than the analyst estimate of $0.02. Revenue was $4.95 billion, versus the consensus at $5.14 billion.

The company said its separation is on track.

1Q 2016 Arconic Segments (Value-Add) Overview



1Q 2016 new Alcoa Segments (Upstream) Overview

Market Update

In aerospace, Alcoa is projecting 6 to 8 percent global aerospace sales growth in 2016, revised from the 8 to 9 percent estimated in fourth quarter 2015. The market is experiencing a transition period as major original equipment manufacturers shift from incumbent platforms to multiple new platforms simultaneously. Powerful trends continue to drive long-term market strength, with the order book for commercial jet airframes and jet engines representing more than nine years of production at 2015 delivery rates.

In automotive, Alcoa continues to forecast global automotive production growth of 1 to 4 percent, including 1 to 5 percent growth in North America. Strong U.S. sales, sustained vehicle demand and incentives are driving the North American automotive market. Automotive sales are also strong in Europe and China.

In the heavy duty truck and trailer end market, Alcoa projects a global production of negative 4 percent to flat. This is revised downward from estimates of negative three to up one percent in fourth quarter 2015 as strength in Europe and China is offset by weakness in North America.

Alcoa projects solid growth in all its other end markets. The Company continues to forecast 1 to 3 percent global sales growth in packaging; 4 to 6 percent building and construction sales growth both globally and in North America; and 2 to 4 percent global airfoil market growth as the market moves towards higher value-add product for new, high efficiency turbines with advanced technology.

In 2016, Alcoa projects an approximately 1.1 million metric ton global aluminum deficit as 5 percent global aluminum demand growth (revised from 6 percent) outweighs 2 percent global aluminum supply growth (revised from 3 percent). In addition, the Company projects a global alumina deficit of 1.4 million metric tons.

Arconic Overview

After the Company’s separation, the innovation and technology-driven Arconic company will include Global Rolled Products (GRP), Engineered Products and Solutions (EPS) and Transportation and Construction Solutions (TCS). In first quarter 2016, these business segments reported combined revenue of $3.3 billion, after-tax operating income (ATOI) of $269 million, adjusted EBITDA of $537 million and adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.4 percent.

ATOI and adjusted EBITDA increased 8 and 7 percent, respectively, year-over-year. The combined segments also generated $179 million in productivity as part of their business improvement programs, announced in the first quarter. All Arconic segments are on track to deliver $650 million productivity savings in 2016.

In addition, the Arconic business reached the following agreements in the first quarter:


Three-year target update

GRP and TCS are on track to meet their 3-year 2016 business targets (3-year target revenue adjusted for foreign exchange and London Metal Exchange pricing impact) announced in November of 2013:

EPS set new 2016 goals to reflect end market headwinds, lower performance expectations for the Firth Rixson acquisition and higher performance expectations in Alcoa Titanium and Engineered Products (ATEP), the former RTI, which is ahead of the integration plan.

As a result, EPS targets segment revenue of $6 billion to $6.2 billion, revised from $7.0 billion (3-year target revenue adjusted for foreign exchange impact), and adjusted EBITDA margin of 21 percent to 22 percent, revised from approximately 23 percent. This includes:

To strengthen its cost structure, EPS is taking a number of actions, including headcount reductions, overtime reduction, productivity savings and other cost controls. The business reduced its workforce by 600 positions in the first quarter and plans a further reduction of 400 positions. Additionally, given the current market environment, it is evaluating another reduction of up to 1,000 positions.

New Alcoa Overview

After the Company’s separation, the new Alcoa will comprise the five business units that today make up Global Primary Products: Bauxite, Alumina, Aluminum, Cast Products and Energy. In first quarter 2016, these combined businesses reported revenue of $2.1 billion, ATOI of $22 million and adjusted EBITDA of $185 million. The new Alcoa segments generated $175 million in productivity in the first quarter as part of its business improvement program, and is on track to deliver $550 million in productivity savings for 2016.

In the first quarter, the new Alcoa continued to take aggressive action to improve its competitiveness, and:

In addition, the new Alcoa continues to successfully build its third-party bauxite business. Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals (AWAC) has secured multiple bauxite supply contracts valued at more than $350 million over the next two years. Under the contracts, the Company will supply bauxite to external customers from three of its global mines. The new contracts, which will double Alcoa’s third-party bauxite sales in 2016 from 2015, cover customers in China, Europe and Brazil. The AWAC group of companies is owned 60 percent by Alcoa and 40 percent by Alumina Limited of Australia.

In Saudi Arabia, the Ma’aden-Alcoa joint venture refinery continued to ramp up. It is now operating at 80 percent of its 1.8 million metric tons of nameplate capacity. Alcoa has a 25.1 percent investment in the joint venture, the world’s lowest-cost, fully integrated aluminum complex.

As a result of these activities, the new Alcoa remains on target to meet or exceed its 2016 goals of moving to the 38th percentile on the global aluminum cost curve and 21st percentile on the global alumina cost curve.

For earnings history and earnings-related data on Alcoa (AA) click here.

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