Piper Jaffray analyst, Peter Keith, sees Ollie's Bargain Outlet (NASDAQ: OLLI) as fairly valued as we head into its 4Q report on Wednesday, 4/6. That said, comp growth of 1% to 2% seems low to the analyst but he expects management to stick with its conservative assumptions. No change to Neutral rating or $22 PT.

Q1 is off to a good start as warmer than average weather for much of March likely had shoppers buying spring related products. Finally, a recent mid-week stop at a Nashville area store revealed healthy traffic, a Starbucks K-Cup holiday coffee closeout which looked to be selling well and a healthy assortment of items for spring.

OLLI released preliminary Q4 and FY15 results in mid-February. In that release, OLLI said FY15 net sales were expected to be ~$762M on a full year comp of ~+6% (implying Q4 sales of ~$243M and a comp of ~ +5%). Additionally, adj. net income for FY15 was expected to be in the range of $39M- $39.5M and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.69 to $0.70 (implying ~$0.27 to $0.28 for Q4).

OLLI has handily topped expectations since coming public including its own long-term comp guidance of +1% to +2%. They believe this has been driven by (1) larger and better direct closeout buys (OLLI indicated it is now receiving substantially more calls direct from suppliers post IPO); and (2) the coffee rollout, while now six quarters in, is still driving a sales benefit. Importantly, coffee appears to give OLLI a key traffic driver. Finally, they are continuing to monitor the closeout channel for WMT merchandise as a result of its SKU rationalization but have seen limited product thus far.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Ollie's Bargain Outlet click here. For more ratings news on Ollie's Bargain Outlet click here.

Shares of Ollie's Bargain Outlet closed at $23.34 yesterday.