UBS analyst, Matthew Roden, hosted an expert panel with 3 prostate cancer specialists (2 urologists and 1 oncologist) that was in line with his prostate cancer model and Medivation (NASDAQ: MDVN) thesis. The key point is that utilization in the urology setting is expected to grow, and that physician awareness of STRIVE and TERRAIN data should be the catalyst for awareness. No change to Buy rating or PT of $50.

Xtandi is expected to grow in the urology segment thanks to STRIVE and TERRAIN. The panelists suggested that the reason for low Xtandi utilization in urology is a lack of awareness of the product and the data. When asked why only 25% of urologists who see CRPC patients prescribe Xtandi, they seemed impressed that the proportion has grown as much as it has (from 5-10% previously). In time, they expect upwards of 40% of urologists to write for Xtandi, in part driven by the TERRAIN and STRIVE (T/S). All 3 panelists felt T/S were important and impressive, and should be included in treatment guidelines. Urologists did think T/S data warrant inclusion in the AUA guidelines, which are considered "the Bible" for urologists, though AUA tends to be slow to reflect data in guidelines.

Even if STRIVE is incorporated, the field may wait for ph3 studies PROSPER and SPARTAN to read out before making M0 utilization widespread (note that M0 isn't in our model). In terms of combo utilization, the ph4 PLATO study is "worth doing" although earlier data for Xtandi/Zytiga combo has been disappointing according to the panel oncologist, calling the combo a case of 1+1=1.1 (not 2). Hence he thinks that combination therapy, if positive, will be "probably modest." As expected, preference is evenly split for Xtandi vs Zytiga in oncology, though Xtandi is preferred in urology.

MDVN shares have been up on several media reports of takeout interest in Medivation. The analyst has always felt Xtandi is a leverageable asset, and the thesis has been that the market hasn't reflected the value of Xtandi and the pipeline opportunities. The formal upside case scenario is $75, which could be achieved organically over time, but also represents a takeout valuation assuming 50% premium to the $50 PT, which is a discounted fair-value that doesn’t provide much pipeline credit.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Medivation click here. For more ratings news on Medivation click here.

Shares of Medivation closed at $46.19 yesterday.