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Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Tops Q4 EPS Views; Guides Q1, FY16

March 10, 2016 7:16 AM

Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ) reported Q4 EPS of $1.05, $0.29 better than the analyst estimate of $0.76. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.12 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.04 billion.

Total solar module shipments were a quarterly record high of 1,430 MW, of which 1,398 MW were recognized in revenue, compared to 1,150 MW recognized in revenue in the third quarter of 2015.

Guidance:

The Company's business outlook is based on management's current views and estimates with respect to operating and market conditions, its current order book and the global financing environment. It is also subject to uncertainty relating to customer final demand and solar project construction schedule. Management's views and estimates are subject to change without notice.

For the first quarter of 2016, the Company expects total module shipments to be in the range of approximately 1,085 MW to 1,135 MW, including approximately 15 MW of shipments to the Company's utility-scale solar projects that may not be recognized in first quarter 2016 revenue. Total revenue for the first quarter of 2016 is expected to be in the range of $645 million to $695 million, with gross margin expected to be between 12% and 14%.

For the full year 2016, the Company expects total module shipments to be in the range of approximately 5.4 GW to 5.5 GW, with approximately 5.0 GW recognized in revenue. Total revenue for the full year 2016 is expected to be in the range of $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion. The Company expects its cost of production to decrease throughout the year as new internal wafer, cell module capacities come online both inside and outside China, and the percentage of external purchase and OEM is reduced. Management expects that the increase in vertical integration along the manufacturing steps will help the Company maintain or improve its gross margin.

The above revenue guidance does not include the potential sale of solar power plants that the Company currently owns and operates, or expects to reach commercial operation in 2016 in OECD countries. The Company remains flexible in ways to monetize these assets in order to maximize shareholder's return, and may consider selling some of its OECD solar plants, in which case revenue for the full year is expected to be in the range of $3.2 billion to $3.6 billion, an increase of $300 million to $500 million over our base forecast.

The Company's solar power plant assets in OECD countries are expected to reach 1.1 GW by the end of 2016.The Company estimates that the resale value of these assets, based on the Company's understanding of the current market conditions for such assets, at approximately $2.5 billion, with gross profit contribution of approximately $355 million. The market situation may change from time to time, resulting in different resale values if and when the Company does sell any of its project assets. In addition, the Company estimates the electricity revenue from these solar power plants, on an annualized run-rate basis, is approximately $160-170 million at the end of 2016.

For earnings history and earnings-related data on Canadian Solar (CSIQ) click here.

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