Piper Jaffray Cuts Price Target on Natera (NTRA) Following a 4Q Upside
Piper Jaffray maintained an Overweight rating on Natera (NASDAQ: NTRA), and cut the price target to $22.00 (from $24.00), following the company's 4Q earnings report. Revenue increased 6% yoy to $52.9M, well above consensus' $45.2M estimates. Adjusted EPS of ($0.31) was $0.33 above Street consensus' ($0.64) estimate.
Analyst William Quirk commented, "Natera’s 4Q15 revenue increased 6% yoy to $52.9M, well above our $46.4M estimate (Street: $45.2M), with upside driven by Horizon and NIPT. Adjusted EPS of ($0.31) was also well above consensus’ ($0.64) estimate (PJC: ($0.54)) driven by strong cash collections. Management lowered FY16 revenue guidance to $190M-$220M (was $220M-$240M) due to in-network contracting, but that cash flow certainly added to a much lower cash burn forecast ($75M-$85M) than our ($117M) projection. Management noted favorable reimbursement progress, signing Aetna, Cigna and several BC/BS plans (including average risk for those with a positive medical policy). We continue to believe Natera's Panorama is best suited for the average risk market (superior microdeletion sensitivity) and anticipate significant volume growth. We see multiple sources of near-term and longterm upside (e.g., average risk reimbursement) and reiterate our Overweight with a $22 price target (was $24) based on 4.0x FY17E Mcap/Rev (multiple unchanged)."
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Shares of Natera closed at $9.50 yesterday.
