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Twitter (TWTR): Mizuho is Expecting Upside But Keeps Neutral Rating

February 9, 2016 6:54 AM

Mizuho analyst, Neil Doshi, thinks Twitter (NYSE: TWTR) could show upside in the quarter but remain concerned about recent executive departures, ability to grow the company's monthly active user base, and ability to gain traction among newer products like Moments. No change to Neutral rating or $21 PT. Twitter reports on Wednesday.

He is modeling revenue, EBITDA and EPS of $713m/$168m/$0.13 vs. the Street at $710m/$175m/ $0.12. Guidance for revenue was $695m - $710m ($703m midpoint) and EBITDA was $155m - $175m ($165m midpoint).

He expects MAUs of 319m, up 11% YoY vs. +8% in 3Q due to a modest uplift from Moments. US MAUs of 69m (for context, U.S. MAUs have been relatively flat around 66m for the last two quarters) and 251m International MAUs. We are modeling U.S. Ad Revenue of $415m, up 49% YoY vs. +57% in 3Q on a 9 point easier comp and we expect Int'l Ad Revenue of ~$236m, up 53% YoY vs. 66% in 3Q on a 23 point easier comp.

Other important topics:

1) Recent key executive departures

2) Update to new products in development

3) Update on Moments and advertising to logged off users

4) Strategy to get Twitter's user base to grow to 1 billion people over the next 5 years

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Twitter, Inc. click here. For more ratings news on Twitter, Inc. click here.

Shares of Twitter, Inc. closed at $14.90 yesterday.

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