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NewLink (NLNK), Intrexon (XON), OraSure (OSUR) Highlighted on Zika - Mizuho

February 2, 2016 11:55 AM

Mizuho Securities analyst Eric Criscuolo sees the Zika outbreak in the early days and sees largely peripheral opportunities. He highlighted three stocks:

NewLink Genetics (NASDAQ: NLNK) (Buy) "has announced initiation of a program to develop a vaccine for the mosquito-borne Zika virus, which has exploded into public view. The company joins a list of companies, universities and agencies worldwide that have made similar announcements. Sanofi-Pasteur (a division of Sanofi; SNY - Not Rated) recently announced its vaccine plans. Canada's National Microbiology Laboratory has expressed a goal of having a vaccine available, potentially by the end of 2016. The University of South Australia and Inovio (INO - Not Rated), among others, are also working on Zika vaccines."

While NewLink could obtain R&D funding and partner a vaccine, as it did with Ebola, we do not view the program as a core part of the investment story. We believe HyperAcute and IDO warrant the vast bulk of investor attention. NLNK's Ebola program could offer insights into potential Zika financial opportunities. In 2014, NLNK licensed its Ebola vaccine (originally developed by the Public Health Agency of Canada) to Merck (MRK - Not Rated) for $30mm upfront, an eventual $20mm milestone payment, and potential royalties. NLNK and MRK also received a $30mm contract from BARDA."

Intrexon (NYSE: XON) (Neutral) "shares have also seen recent strength, driven by Zika headlines. XON's Oxitec division is introducing genetically-modified mosquitoes into Brazil that produce offspring unable to survive, thereby controlling the mosquito population. The program is expected to expand to cover an area with 35,000-60,000 residents. The expansion is a positive, and getting even a small slice of potentially billions of dollars in mosquito control spending worldwide could produce significant revenue opportunities. However, we caution that the program is still in early stages, very little of the economic/financial model is known (probably population-based) and significant roll out is likely a long, drawn out process due to financial, political, public opinion and biological hurdles."

Given OraSure's (NASDAQ: OSUR) (Buy) "development of an Ebola test last year, we would not be surprised if the company also develops a Zika test. However, we think HCV and molecular testing remain the key story lines for OraSure. There is no commercially available test, and U.S. testing is done mainly by the CDC. We would view this as an opportunity to help the greater good as well as pick up some funding revenue, but, like Ebola, we don't view it as a core piece of OSUR's business. OraSure was awarded a $10.4mm BARDA contract for Ebola in 2015."

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